Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe42410e8df93c94e34be5158b1ce29a46f9074a4f8a375f2449fee4663331afb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 18c | 20,491$3,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,776.51 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 32c | 17,665$5,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,682.67 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 31c | 10,096$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.22 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 68c | 7,350$4,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.22 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 11c | 6,198$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.98 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,196$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…69c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,734$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,479$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,436$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,336$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…9be6backed Yes | 4c | 1,166$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,152$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed No | 76c | 1,140$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 4c | 965.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 2c | 740.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 13c | 698.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…30a4backed Yes | 3c | 655.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 605$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…d388backed Yes | 2c | 593.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 5c | 533.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Yes | 5c | 518.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…dbc9backed Yes | 2c | 500.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 3c | 471.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 449.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308c…9430backed Yes | 4c | 420.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 3c | 388.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…561dbacked Yes | 5c | 386.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa838…15cbbacked Yes | 5c | 381.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 5c | 372.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 8c | 339.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 334.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 332.38$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 5c | 330.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 34c | 318.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x018b…7d89backed Yes | 4c | 289.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 276.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 5c | 267.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 69c | 236.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +262%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 163.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 64c | 146.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…7a51backed No | 69c | 133$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 76c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 123.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 115.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 66c | 104.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…4367backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 30c | 98.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…f126backed Yes | 36c | 82.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 80.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 25c | 71.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked No | 70c | 66.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…cdc1backed Yes | 33c | 59.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +263%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…2e2fbacked Yes | 33c | 50.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 50.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed Yes | 23c | 49.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…36d5backed No | 69c | 23.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…7d30backed No | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fc…35c4backed No | 68c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.