TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$308,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$292,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31d9…3581backed Yes26c46,150$12,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,045.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7816…b85ebacked No74c23,043$17,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,014.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…8d13backed No74c22,795$16,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,949.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes44c20,726$9,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,185.9222433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes23c12,676$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.297122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes35c8,726$3,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,035.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes21c8,650$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.912820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked No61c7,974$4,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.391070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7de7…a9c8backed No61c6,968$4,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,684.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes45c6,388$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,857.612334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No59c4,800$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.658632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No62c4,585$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.614231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes25c4,077$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.63296.9%2 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes24c3,650$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c3,247$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.515148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes47c3,211$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.047030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed Yes42c2,400$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.131827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e94…308cbacked No55c1,991$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…64d1backed Yes45c1,983$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes12c1,810$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.332330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked No51c1,769$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.53580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87b7…f533backed No49c1,727$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+80.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No61c1,680$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.423330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b4…cf0bbacked Yes45c1,641$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…c591backed No59c1,346$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes46c1,327$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.172623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No53c1,295$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes25c1,272$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.443850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes22c1,083$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.912711.1%3 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No70c999.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff26…5bffbacked Yes45c966.96$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes19c835.23$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9611039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes17c803.72$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.44540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+188%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes42c801.13$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.883138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d54…86d1backed Yes24c740.73$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fb…ad54backed Yes46c602.79$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes37c572.19$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.511323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852f…3aaebacked Yes50c562.67$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+97.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeee…4e57backed No51c547.92$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No53c543.48$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked No55c540.04$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Yes48c538.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f7…64e4backed Yes59c528.64$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x440e…4907backed Yes47c502.85$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.041643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No61c502.63$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.642934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No62c497.84$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-76.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d62…27e0backed Yes40c495.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes35c469.33$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.93540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed No55c463.45$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.91717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes37c447.84$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.6417528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25ff…0849backed Yes35c442.06$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d41…a0bfbacked No48c432.58$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f83…e34bbacked Yes47c429.32$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes45c425.64$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.824621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes15c413.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8160%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bed…3df1backed Yes50c387.2$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c377.13$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1110836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c04…97bdbacked No52c376.18$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes41c365.3$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.457525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4c…fffdbacked Yes42c360.83$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.91728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes41c353.87$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.551656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c352.48$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.620242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked No59c350.5$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a7…3b81backed Yes40c347.09$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b6…f9d9backed No50c344.62$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.38137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes41c338.13$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.141421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c322.31$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.447466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No61c319.08$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.782941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes10c309$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4714325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes48c305$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No74c300.33$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.511546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes36c300$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.56827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No51c299.83$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.08683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick47cpaid+74.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed No59c292.62$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9710433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d6…e362backed No54c268.05$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes40c260.32$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.38650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9007…70d7backed No55c253$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes12c252.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed Yes48c250$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c244.33$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.471752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes42c240$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+156.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x270d…d850backed Yes44c227.37$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae9a…7ceabacked Yes19c226.37$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eff…8897backed Yes44c222.09$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x153c…3759backed No47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.23713.5%5 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+1,104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbff…5830backed Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x280e…3238backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e8…b571backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0f…e040backed Yes42c200$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e81…258dbacked Yes50c194.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+35.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x55d3…5efabacked Yes51c194.1$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe865…0b11backed Yes45c194.08$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab80…af18backed No64c193.33$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.23933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x295e…4ac7backed No51c180.01$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c0…b049backed Yes34c173.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No49c172.13$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+120%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb165…d9ffbacked No56c172$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfc…284abacked No59c165.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes48c160.66$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.