Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c8fec01a80375d7e9c0ea9b8e27161a1b446816b5770b9793494abffbf46c86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 20c | 18,588$3,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,792.48 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 10,058$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.36 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 20c | 4,587$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.01 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 26c | 2,655$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,604$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed Yes | 14c | 712.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 699.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 10c | 564.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 559.42$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 19c | 511.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 489.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 13c | 452.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 11c | 440$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 12c | 433.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 11c | 414.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…6ddabacked Yes | 13c | 381.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 17c | 339.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 309$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 284.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 25c | 282.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 24c | 281.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 24c | 273.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…5ce0backed Yes | 19c | 230.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 14c | 209.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 199.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes | 14c | 189$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308c…9430backed Yes | 12c | 186.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 15c | 175.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes | 17c | 164.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 19c | 157.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 150.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 142.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 20c | 141.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 12c | 136.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 11c | 135.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…2d83backed Yes | 13c | 135.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489f…6fc3backed Yes | 15c | 132.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 25c | 120.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…fffdbacked Yes | 15c | 111.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa838…15cbbacked Yes | 17c | 109.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 102.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +273.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…30a4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked Yes | 10c | 99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +263%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 90.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…d1d9backed Yes | 12c | 88.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…2323backed Yes | 18c | 82.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 15c | 81.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 25c | 77.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…dbc9backed Yes | 13c | 77.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 76.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 21c | 55.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…8346backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed No | 66c | 29.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.