TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b6f…0e5f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$345
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$504
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$9,260Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+237.4%+$21,986.14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$690
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,936Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+232.2%+$11,463.62
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$825Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$824.73
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,936Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,935.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$6,511Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,510.97
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$38,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38,149.9
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,000
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.18
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$204
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,146Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+101.9%+$1,168.06
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,140.99
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+165%+$885.59
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20,851Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,851.19
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,689Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$528.21
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$399
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+159.7%+$369
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,698Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$1,932.36
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+300%+$750
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,272Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$728
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.4
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$810Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+171.6%+$1,389.99
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$89
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$174.49
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$59,075Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$18,676.38
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$7,950Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$3,949.97
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,732Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,732.19
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,134
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,980Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,980.46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$7,798Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,797.9
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,608Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,607.93
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$119
All 8 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+214.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+528.9%+$504.6
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$598.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.