Commodities · resolved market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,564,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,663,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,564,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,838 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 10c | 933,435$96,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,570.88 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 2c | 800,146$13,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,520.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e2…13c3backed Yes | 4c | 751,996$28,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,648.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 20c | 629,739$128,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,497.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 16c | 490,221$79,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,730.05 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 23c | 431,093$97,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97,947.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 8c | 376,372$29,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,924.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 17c | 372,469$62,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,840.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 80c | 362,601$289,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,110.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 17c | 340,605$57,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,269.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 21c | 324,786$66,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,836.04 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 6c | 309,915$18,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,263.97 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 11c | 300,823$32,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,286.07 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…29ddbacked Yes | 7c | 207,037$13,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,609.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…34bfbacked Yes | 23c | 203,370$46,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,492.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 4c | 188,596$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,700 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 24c | 182,563$43,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,827.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 171,885$40,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,052.22 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 19c | 171,689$32,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,992.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 20c | 158,935$32,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,324.28 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Yes | 6c | 157,390$9,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,390.06 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 9c | 146,819$13,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,152.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 3c | 145,521$3,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,645.64 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…11d7backed No | 68c | 145,205$99,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,184.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…ae16backed Yes | 1c | 140,200$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 12c | 137,366$16,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,785.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 16c | 135,200$21,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,176.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 5c | 134,852$7,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,081.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 29c | 132,439$38,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,560.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 8c | 125,035$9,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,393.49 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 22c | 124,570$26,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,906.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 7c | 123,061$9,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,166.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 14c | 118,797$16,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,740.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 1c | 118,352$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 17c | 110,436$18,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,818.71 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes | 1c | 109,230$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 3c | 106,846$3,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,598.84 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…d640backed Yes | 22c | 105,816$23,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,746.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 14c | 105,000$14,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,400.74 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 27c | 103,569$27,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,449.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 28c | 101,421$28,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,732.36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…32b6backed No | 75c | 100,000$75,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 19c | 97,776$18,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,693.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 19c | 94,602$17,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,974.88 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 21c | 92,720$19,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,471.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 2c | 89,079$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed No | 74c | 83,645$61,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,716.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +174.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 38c | 80,000$30,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,299.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 79c | 78,195$61,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,286.11 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 6c | 77,989$5,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,017.03 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed No | 73c | 74,602$54,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,278.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 8c | 72,096$5,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,469.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe48…683fbacked No | 74c | 67,530$50,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,529.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 4c | 67,492$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,871.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 67c | 66,405$44,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,924.75 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…3b13backed Yes | 0c | 66,019$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 25c | 64,819$16,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,243.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 2c | 64,263$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed No | 79c | 61,578$48,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,133.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 37c | 61,520$22,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,031.49 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…7556backed Yes | 33c | 60,924$19,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,914.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 10c | 60,290$5,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,777.9 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…6bbabacked No | 75c | 59,430$44,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,101.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…c328backed Yes | 0c | 56,111$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 16c | 55,785$8,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,653 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Yes | 42c | 54,419$23,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,115 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Yes | 7c | 52,700$3,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,642.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 9c | 50,352$4,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,451.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 12c | 50,245$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,249.67 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 2c | 50,204$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed No | 65c | 50,000$32,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0537backed Yes | 40c | 50,000$19,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,951.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 37c | 49,687$18,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,384.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…cc85backed No | 77c | 49,350$38,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,350.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 62c | 49,307$30,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,739.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…e8aabacked No | 43c | 48,190$20,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,407.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 10c | 46,562$4,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,705.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 3c | 44,843$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…e572backed Yes | 74c | 44,719$33,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,114.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…54adbacked Yes | 18c | 43,718$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 16c | 43,627$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 33c | 42,221$13,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,800.05 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes | 2c | 42,063$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…ac75backed Yes | 0c | 40,486$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 18c | 40,060$7,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,357.21 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 8c | 40,016$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…7d85backed No | 75c | 39,819$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,819.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 10c | 38,060$3,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,842.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 5c | 38,001$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 25c | 37,890$9,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,416.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 16c | 36,826$6,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,018.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 13c | 36,082$4,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,595.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 30c | 35,297$10,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,529.08 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 72c | 35,051$25,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,835.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 19c | 35,005$6,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,747.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…e1f2backed Yes | 15c | 34,620$5,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,123 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 76c | 34,417$26,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,335.34 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 33,572$5,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,419.87 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 15c | 32,966$4,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,971.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 64c | 32,921$21,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,860.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.