TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5545…8371

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
150
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT8920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 89 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+112.2%+$407.19
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.63
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+119.2%+$58.19
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+57.8%+$62.3
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.48
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+193.6%+$52.07
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.5
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+219.1%+$43.82
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$35.56
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+150.3%+$75.13
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Showing 25 of 89 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.8
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,786Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,786.27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$176
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$1,098.23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$149.5
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.52
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$16,813Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$6,519.12
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,058Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$369.74
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.67
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.8
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.73
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+197.9%+$123.51
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.6
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$4.77
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.7
France vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.67
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.91
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,170.02
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,935Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$644.88
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$111.54
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,245Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$414.98
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.07
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+174.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+208.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$46.96
Hyperliquid all time high before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+300%+$74.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.69
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+185.2%+$885.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$10.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.