Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc2de69f4e16ff369637f8323d44be5764111e0bfc82cdb43eba9a3e2895dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $821,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $465,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $821,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 16c | 33,386$5,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,304.9 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 25,214$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.74 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…be52backed Yes | 4c | 24,219$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 17,284$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.86 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 15c | 15,652$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.56 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 5c | 14,375$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.99 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 1c | 12,050$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 11,628$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.62 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 3c | 11,086$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 11c | 9,805$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.91 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 10c | 9,035$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.39 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 17c | 9,000$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.95 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 26c | 8,620$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.47 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 12c | 6,453$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.5 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 6,146$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.1 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 12c | 5,871$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.61 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 18c | 5,556$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.49 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 5,448$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 15c | 4,879$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.58 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 14c | 4,855$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.69 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 4,519$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.4 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 4,403$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.06 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 4,046$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 8c | 3,992$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.02 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 14c | 3,966$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.69 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 3,940$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.37 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 4c | 3,893$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 16c | 3,747$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.84 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 5c | 3,731$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 7c | 3,729$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.92 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 3,567$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.91 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,400$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.38 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 16c | 3,235$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.25 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 3,133$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.69 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 34c | 3,001$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.69 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.76 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 10c | 2,997$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.47 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 12c | 2,915$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.19 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 17c | 2,889$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.54 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 20c | 2,755$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.7 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 16c | 2,725$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fa…29cbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,636$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 13c | 2,512$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.34 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…7198backed Yes | 7c | 2,477$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 2,468$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.43 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 7c | 2,410$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.3 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 15c | 2,400$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.05 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,296$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.23 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 31c | 2,214$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.27 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 2,203$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 14c | 2,200$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.5 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,185$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.14 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 7c | 2,165$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.72 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 39c | 2,043$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd67…0741backed Yes | 6c | 2,043$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…57d5backed Yes | 5c | 1,966$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,878$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.89 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f1…4850backed Yes | 10c | 1,799$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 6c | 1,750$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 6c | 1,725$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,725$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.08 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 22c | 1,723$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.11 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,698$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.39 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 8c | 1,668$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…37b3backed Yes | 15c | 1,598$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,561$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.68 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…e7d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,537$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…04f5backed Yes | 7c | 1,502$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 13c | 1,493$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.52 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed Yes | 19c | 1,482$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 20c | 1,473$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.57 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 28c | 1,350$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.8 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 12c | 1,315$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…49cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 4c | 1,246$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 6c | 1,234$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes | 46c | 1,208$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed Yes | 11c | 1,193$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,130$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.61 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,050$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 7c | 1,030$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 27c | 1,017$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed Yes | 4c | 964.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378f…ea96backed Yes | 23c | 935.11$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 16c | 930.76$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…9fb0backed Yes | 11c | 919.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 10c | 912.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…68c3backed Yes | 15c | 903$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 19c | 900$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 12c | 897.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 27c | 863.01$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.35 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 5c | 850$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes | 6c | 843.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 14c | 841.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.