Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x926efca04150868f9fd049c50627b6f8174a2e604232f975d69af6daea87a9d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $808,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $350,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $808,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 67,519$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.88 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 2c | 33,938$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 12c | 30,361$3,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,521.77 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,718$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 7c | 19,316$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.03 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 17,724$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.42 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 15,905$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.25 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…1739backed Yes | 0c | 14,769$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 14,550$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 14,271$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,762$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.5 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…be52backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 9,929$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.38 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 11c | 9,206$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.28 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 13c | 8,999$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.89 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 8,720$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.83 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 17c | 8,252$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.02 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 7c | 8,014$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.54 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,733$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 10c | 6,902$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.05 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 18c | 6,724$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.76 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 7c | 6,147$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.25 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 4c | 5,645$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,629$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 2c | 5,559$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 12c | 5,503$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 2c | 5,252$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 5,021$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.03 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 10c | 4,408$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.86 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 16c | 4,374$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.63 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 17c | 4,330$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.28 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 13c | 4,275$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.36 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 11c | 3,967$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.26 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 1c | 3,774$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 3,084$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…6257backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,737$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 2,671$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.26 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 5c | 2,548$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 18c | 2,489$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 3c | 2,248$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 2,164$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 16c | 2,042$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 12c | 2,040$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.07 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 11c | 2,003$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.69 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,981$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…4263backed Yes | 1c | 1,874$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 8c | 1,868$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.73 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,850$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 1,850$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…0204backed Yes | 1c | 1,806$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 20c | 1,600$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 12c | 1,451$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,442$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…9389backed Yes | 11c | 1,438$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 17c | 1,360$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.43 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,354$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,340$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 16c | 1,294$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.69 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 1,282$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,252$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…b65ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,231$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 1,218$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 1,202$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 13c | 1,187$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 2c | 1,117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,098$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 11c | 1,016$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…f657backed Yes | 5c | 1,006$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 9c | 1,002$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cc7abacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 2c | 949.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 18c | 933.15$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 23c | 917.01$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.91 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 15c | 916.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 19c | 892.63$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.19 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 8c | 876.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 16c | 874.49$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 20c | 867.93$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 16c | 856.64$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.26 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 6c | 850$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 822.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 17c | 818$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.86 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…b493backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…ca14backed Yes | 7c | 741.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…8e1abacked Yes | 14c | 739$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 20c | 735.91$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 3c | 715.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 17c | 701.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…c1d8backed Yes | 21c | 650$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.