TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5b52…b65e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 52 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+46.8%+$10.3
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+147.5%+$178.51
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT+468.2%+$140.45
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$61
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.88
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+487.6%+$214.53
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$54
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$11.51
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: P11 Esports vs Axolotl (BO1)backed P11 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+72.3%+$8.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+35.1%+$4.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$10.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+25%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelicans vs. Magicbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.