TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,412,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,613,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,412,174 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes18c448,418$79,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,446.5337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes30c390,958$116,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,089.238617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes15c230,008$35,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,383.433342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No71c218,115$153,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,223.55141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes48c179,811$86,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,051.578137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes16c139,247$22,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,467.9651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes34c121,626$41,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,932.2312654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes23c105,235$24,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,570.893823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes7c83,421$5,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,491.2319531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes11c76,836$8,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,452.9626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No50c72,367$36,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,364.9236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No71c71,144$50,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,407.462055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes5c67,438$3,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,048.364835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e0…167ebacked Yes1c60,303$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.11933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes11c47,359$5,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,409.0217018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c46,508$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.52581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes16c41,775$6,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,722.071323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes27c40,978$10,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,914.9834440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No78c40,887$31,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,128.163438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No68c38,997$26,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,287.0735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed No74c38,027$28,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,707.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcd…fa31backed No77c36,118$27,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,260.841553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed No76c34,930$26,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,256.51656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No75c33,622$25,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,436.637462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No61c33,542$20,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,186.7512038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes32c32,093$10,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,135.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes57c31,809$18,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,189.879154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No70c30,588$21,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,127.57538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes20c30,039$6,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,010.96650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No52c29,678$15,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,165.748056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No62c28,489$17,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,850.512157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c28,300$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.6910634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed No54c27,574$14,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,739.023619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked No32c27,572$8,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,837.071050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes6c27,100$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.6117931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes16c23,474$3,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,656.28037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes24c22,445$5,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,406.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes8c21,500$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675330%0 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb540…b343backed Yes19c21,324$4,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,116.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No44c20,847$9,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,678.667247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes11c20,258$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,220.064022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes28c20,000$5,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,565.2231241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No80c20,000$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No61c18,429$11,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20042738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes29c17,264$4,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,982.569647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No77c17,000$13,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.45540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes2c16,872$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.288552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x140a…f9aebacked Yes3c16,854$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f32…b501backed Yes30c16,673$4,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,976.891040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+97.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c15,118$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.8342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7379…79f0backed No40c14,895$5,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,966.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1854…81eabacked Yes37c14,873$5,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,536.641650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+107%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x465a…ca63backed Yes18c14,797$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,723.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x067d…9f81backed No63c14,385$9,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,324.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x226d…f49ebacked Yes19c13,884$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,637.97812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-63.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes27c13,415$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,578.464257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes51c13,264$6,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,752.6131649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237c…802abacked No70c13,136$9,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes34c12,730$4,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,307.532147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes15c12,670$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.883847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5e…9094backed No43c12,160$5,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,933.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9223…c25abacked No38c11,730$4,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,315.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+105.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No39c11,705$4,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,092.22259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No80c11,691$9,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,390.228359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c11,562$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No46c11,500$5,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,20523525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes53c10,900$5,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,828.448143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes17c10,873$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.0256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ef5…20c5backed Yes61c10,800$6,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,58810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No45c10,737$4,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,902.1817646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f2…b74abacked No50c10,674$5,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,373.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes10c10,672$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c10,301$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.72078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes56c10,166$5,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,694.8928750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed No72c10,147$7,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,862.465851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31f4…a366backed Yes42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed No78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2002100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50036227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…323fbacked No75c9,976$7,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed No76c9,908$7,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.521442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes22c9,732$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.67519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No35c9,706$3,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,324.4412245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No52c9,684$4,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,687.96771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+6.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed No54c9,552$5,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,401.564119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478d…e4bbbacked Yes1c9,038$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked No75c8,749$6,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.681070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes20c8,200$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65227233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes57c8,056$4,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,631.772035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd91a…f14bbacked No73c8,041$5,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,171.17100%7 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed No76c7,906$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed No76c7,541$5,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.242642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c7,200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.03964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc2…98a6backed No38c7,000$2,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,315.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+81.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes66c6,952$4,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,579.466440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037a…c53ebacked No72c6,948$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.44887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes66c6,871$4,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,547.351145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes46c6,693$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.742814.3%4 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-69.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No75c6,511$4,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.9219930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No35c6,397$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,138.314835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.