Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51179a929cf3bb4e4f09bb9d1387e90f7c7f91d101ea977d82d75ce15fb33cf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,412,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,613,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,412,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 18c | 448,418$79,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,446.53 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 30c | 390,958$116,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,089.23 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 15c | 230,008$35,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,383.43 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 71c | 218,115$153,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,223.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 48c | 179,811$86,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,051.57 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 139,247$22,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,467.96 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 34c | 121,626$41,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,932.23 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 23c | 105,235$24,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,570.89 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 7c | 83,421$5,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,491.23 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 76,836$8,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,452.96 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 50c | 72,367$36,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,364.92 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 71c | 71,144$50,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,407.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 5c | 67,438$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.36 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…167ebacked Yes | 1c | 60,303$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 11c | 47,359$5,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,409.02 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 46,508$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.52 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 16c | 41,775$6,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,722.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 27c | 40,978$10,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,914.98 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 78c | 40,887$31,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,128.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 68c | 38,997$26,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,287.07 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed No | 74c | 38,027$28,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,707.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed No | 77c | 36,118$27,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,260.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 76c | 34,930$26,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,256.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 75c | 33,622$25,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,436.63 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 61c | 33,542$20,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,186.75 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 32c | 32,093$10,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,135.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 57c | 31,809$18,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,189.87 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 70c | 30,588$21,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,127.5 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes | 20c | 30,039$6,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,010.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 52c | 29,678$15,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,165.74 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 62c | 28,489$17,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,850.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 28,300$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.69 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 54c | 27,574$14,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,739.02 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 32c | 27,572$8,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,837.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 27,100$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.61 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 16c | 23,474$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,656.2 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes | 24c | 22,445$5,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,406.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 8c | 21,500$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb540…b343backed Yes | 19c | 21,324$4,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 44c | 20,847$9,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,678.66 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 11c | 20,258$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.06 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 20,000$5,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,565.22 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 80c | 20,000$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 61c | 18,429$11,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 29c | 17,264$4,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,982.56 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 77c | 17,000$13,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 2c | 16,872$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.28 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…f9aebacked Yes | 3c | 16,854$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…b501backed Yes | 30c | 16,673$4,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,976.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 15,118$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.83 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7379…79f0backed No | 40c | 14,895$5,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,966.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…81eabacked Yes | 37c | 14,873$5,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,536.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…ca63backed Yes | 18c | 14,797$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,723.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067d…9f81backed No | 63c | 14,385$9,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,324.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Yes | 19c | 13,884$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 27c | 13,415$3,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,578.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 51c | 13,264$6,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,752.61 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237c…802abacked No | 70c | 13,136$9,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 34c | 12,730$4,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,307.53 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 15c | 12,670$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.88 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…9094backed No | 43c | 12,160$5,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,933.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…c25abacked No | 38c | 11,730$4,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,315.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 39c | 11,705$4,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,092.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 80c | 11,691$9,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.22 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 11,562$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 46c | 11,500$5,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,205 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 53c | 10,900$5,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,828.44 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 10,873$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.02 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…20c5backed Yes | 61c | 10,800$6,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,588 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 45c | 10,737$4,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,902.18 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…b74abacked No | 50c | 10,674$5,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,373.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes | 10c | 10,672$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 10,301$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 56c | 10,166$5,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,694.89 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed No | 72c | 10,147$7,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,862.46 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f4…a366backed Yes | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed No | 78c | 10,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…323fbacked No | 75c | 9,976$7,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 76c | 9,908$7,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,371.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 9,732$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.67 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 35c | 9,706$3,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,324.44 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…74d6backed No | 52c | 9,684$4,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,687.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed No | 54c | 9,552$5,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,401.56 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…e4bbbacked Yes | 1c | 9,038$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 75c | 8,749$6,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 20c | 8,200$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 57c | 8,056$4,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,631.77 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 73c | 8,041$5,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,171.1 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 76c | 7,906$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 76c | 7,541$5,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed No | 38c | 7,000$2,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,315.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 66c | 6,952$4,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,579.46 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037a…c53ebacked No | 72c | 6,948$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.44 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 66c | 6,871$4,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,547.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 46c | 6,693$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.74 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 75c | 6,511$4,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.92 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 35c | 6,397$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,138.31 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.