TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7bb2…682c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
200
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Commodities, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$117.93
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$636.99
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+42.9%+$150
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24,735Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+42.9%+$10,601.17
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,157Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$6,156.94
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16,473Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16,472.56
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,043Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+138.8%+$2,836.71
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,590Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+208.4%+$5,398.45
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$83.23
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+43.5%+$228.24
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$8,087Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+36.1%+$2,922.89
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$485.51
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,113Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,113.18
30% EU tariff in effect by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$491.93
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$260
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$970Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+209.3%+$2,029.99
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$33.27
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$908Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+1,117%+$10,141.48
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$8,818Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.2%+$2,748.93
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,600
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$10,550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+78.2%+$8,248.36
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,720Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,719.98
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,899.98
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT2941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,710Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,709.99
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13,401Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,400.61
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,349.82
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10,240Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$3,759.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,297Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+139.6%+$4,603.9
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$4,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,375.32
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$6,143Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+74.3%+$4,566.9
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$450
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,425Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100.9%+$6,483.83
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$111.42
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$651Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$650.57
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$440
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,753Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+35.6%+$623.62
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$6,227Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,227.48
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$900
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$1,000
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$4,068Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,068.32
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$655Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$655
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$8,650Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+50.3%+$4,350
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,449Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$4,449.01
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,210.47
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$8,179Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$8,179.18
Iran strike on Israel before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,319.99
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$48
Iran military response before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13,294Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+57.5%+$7,641.82
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,075Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,075.1
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,499.99
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$7,100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$2,900
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13,300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$6,699.99
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$16,700Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$8,299.98
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,581Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+93.7%+$2,419.23
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$9,231Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+67.8%+$6,259.12
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+354.5%+$78
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$800
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$127.5
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$506.24
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$9,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+25%+$2,400
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,380Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+37%+$1,620
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,322Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$816
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$8,776Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+25.3%+$2,224.33
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28,112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28,112.29
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$390
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,835Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+178.8%+$5,070.46
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$3,381Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$3,381.22
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20,648Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20,648.44
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$568Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+58.7%+$333.78
South Korean President impeached by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$864Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$863.61
Will Saeed Jalili be the next President of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,116.65
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,949Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$750.79
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$589.99
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$4,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,081.99
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$5,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,900
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$625
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$320
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$8,477Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$8,477.43
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,291Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+91.9%+$2,106
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$5,040Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+138.1%+$6,960
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$204
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$3,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$3,909.99
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,632Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$2,632.16
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$214.08
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$23,977Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+40.3%+$9,669.58
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18,006Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+38.8%+$6,993.99
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,300
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+95.8%+$491.59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$859.99
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$3,937Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,936.51
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$718Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$717.6
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.18
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$308.11
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,566Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,566.32
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,016Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,016.25
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20,427Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20,427.31
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$7,619Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+163.3%+$12,438.66
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47,206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+49.8%+$23,529.5
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,938Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,937.78
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$8,426Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,425.57
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,519.99
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,468Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+60.4%+$2,094.56
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$6,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$6,049.99
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$900
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,890Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+35.2%+$1,370.2
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$750
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$9,187Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$9,187.39
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,033Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$2,032.72
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$7,861Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$7,861.12
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$9,664Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$9,663.62
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$763.53
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$200
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,439.64
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,003Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,002.64
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$672Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.7%+$428
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,945Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,945.08
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$57,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$57,900.47
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21,494Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$21,493.64
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,887Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,887.04
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$34,486Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+53.2%+$18,355.27
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19,680Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+33.1%+$6,518.95
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$744Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$744.23
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,300
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14,980Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$5,020.08
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$920
Will Rhea Seehorn win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$720
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,742Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$2,742
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,813Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$2,812.61
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+49.3%+$330
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$184.31
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$359.05
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+87.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New Diddy charges before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$180
Diddy released from custody before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$60
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$716Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$716
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$3,890Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,890
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$680
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.