Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6870e9b0693c6caa48212017fdfa545a2198556766bd603fc7be81db2dfde17e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 2c | 18,393$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.41 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 3c | 16,103$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.62 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 11,748$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.22 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 2c | 9,665$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 3c | 7,530$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 6,385$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.63 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…97ddbacked Yes | 1c | 5,512$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,436$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 7c | 4,928$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.25 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 3c | 3,809$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 3,793$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,632$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 4c | 3,241$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 3c | 3,067$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…e170backed Yes | 3c | 2,714$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 2,427$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 3c | 2,060$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…d15cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,900$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639b…99e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,893$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 3c | 1,822$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,744$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed Yes | 4c | 1,700$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 4c | 1,673$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,670$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.35 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,666$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,665$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 8c | 1,643$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…24d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,454$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…2bb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,386$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…8d22backed Yes | 2c | 1,358$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 3c | 1,207$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,171$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,037$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 3c | 915.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 4c | 915.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Yes | 6c | 900.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 713.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…73f3backed Yes | 3c | 642.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…5664backed Yes | 2c | 627.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 10c | 566.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 2c | 564.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…6f77backed Yes | 5c | 541.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 3c | 474.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 4c | 452$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 3c | 449.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd432…7b82backed Yes | 3c | 405.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 9c | 355$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…99dbbacked Yes | 4c | 318.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes | 4c | 317.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…3f35backed Yes | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0388…5c8ebacked Yes | 13c | 148.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.