TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6f62…38fc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
110
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 58 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT4639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$526Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$525.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$8,453Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,452.82
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$186
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,955Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,955.27
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+227.1%+$442.53
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.3
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.74
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$556.1
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+172.2%+$570
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.66
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.98
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+141.1%+$741.48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.76
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+430.8%+$270.24
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$219.36
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$301.97
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$14
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$199.57
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$897Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$897.42
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,283Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+83%+$1,063.98
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+546.8%+$1,522.84
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+146.1%+$490.8
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$12.7
Israel military action against Iraq before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$32
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2024, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$186.32
Will 'Red One' gross between $24-27m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$56.72
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$26.61
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$407.95
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$685Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+36.5%+$250.1
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$848Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+92.3%+$782.88
Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$380.94
Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$104.99
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$886Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT+57.9%+$513.62
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,031.83
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross more than $19m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will CinemaScore give 'Joker: Folie à Deux' a D?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+27.6%+$43.07
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sean Duffy be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$244.35
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.57
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$72.28
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$899Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+109.5%+$984.85
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.29
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$489.73
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$801Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$801
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,390Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+45%+$626.05
Will Eric Adams attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$28.37
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+25%+$3.2
Will there be a US Government shutdown? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,237Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$1,236.78
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by midnight?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+108.3%+$52
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+56.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$520.08
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.5
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,514Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+178.4%+$2,700.9
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$4,487Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+137%+$6,147.12
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$427.07
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$975Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+204.9%+$1,998.14
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+147.5%+$197.87
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+103.8%+$40.23
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+40.3%+$103.85
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$933Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$933.38
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+229.5%+$132.34
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 300k and 350k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+347.1%+$451.4
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 350k and 400k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.84
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$109.75
Will Kendrick Lamar be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+234%+$333.91
Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+201.8%+$921.36
New Diddy charges before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$27.3
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-65.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-72.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$43
Will Thomas Tuchel be England's next manager?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT+233.3%+$175
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,608.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+2,608.9%+$8,115.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsonists arrested in connection with LA wildfires? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+566.7%+$425
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST+112.8%+$15.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Joe Burrow and Olivia Holzmacher break up this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+90.9%+$192.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.