Middle East · resolved market
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ee06ace4720393c4c7399f8c4a7331de2f28aec6c385ca702f2805acaefadc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 8c | 17,132$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.83 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 11,595$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.77 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 8c | 7,421$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,314$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 10c | 3,213$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.51 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,980$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 4c | 2,573$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,292$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 4c | 2,141$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,895$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…29f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,669$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 8c | 1,411$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,356$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 17c | 1,173$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 9c | 1,100$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,051$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 8c | 1,020$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…67c1backed Yes | 11c | 927.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 854.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…cfa0backed Yes | 21c | 788.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.83 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 6c | 721$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…aa3ebacked Yes | 3c | 714.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…15cdbacked Yes | 3c | 552$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 9c | 500.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…917abacked Yes | 6c | 488.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0e…7ebfbacked Yes | 13c | 483.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 9c | 447.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…43cebacked Yes | 16c | 435.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 3c | 420.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 10c | 418.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaa…fd78backed Yes | 25c | 399.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd47…aa89backed Yes | 19c | 384.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 7c | 329.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 9c | 309$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 5c | 272.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Yes | 7c | 261.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 10c | 204.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…f64dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…35cabacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 26c | 189.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 9c | 157.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 148.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcedd…10d6backed Yes | 19c | 148.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…e71fbacked Yes | 22c | 142.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…2636backed Yes | 12c | 113.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 9c | 111.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 13c | 111$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?this page
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in July?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in June?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in October?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in September?No won
- No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.