Middle East · resolved market
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d6c97faadb490c3f30b9d094a5e9444c2cacef1366a5928ceba571c1b287e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 2c | 919.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 903.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…c183backed Yes | 22c | 750.2$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…fd17backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…f111backed Yes | 18c | 526$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 18c | 502.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…0919backed Yes | 41c | 401$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 28c | 318.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…d141backed Yes | 38c | 170.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 7c | 166.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe453…1864backed Yes | 18c | 160.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…5ff5backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…4ec0backed No | 72c | 96.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…36a6backed Yes | 18c | 60.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…d2f4backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…d602backed No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 34cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…d818backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in July?this page
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in June?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in October?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in September?No won
- No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.