Middle East · resolved market
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88bb7db9b140476cfb392b8ec1ffa9dae79b99b6a033c70839f6ea9f6e65f81d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $617,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $708,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $617,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 55c | 54,324$30,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,273.37 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 23c | 34,763$7,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,840.18 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 70c | 30,654$21,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,052.21 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 73c | 24,108$17,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,580.68 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 69c | 17,202$11,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,384.68 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked No | 59c | 8,475$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…8788backed Yes | 73c | 7,729$5,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 7,035$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.66 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 44c | 7,010$3,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,944.13 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked Yes | 68c | 5,923$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 72c | 5,493$3,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 57c | 5,079$2,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 77c | 4,597$3,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked No | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 37c | 3,961$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.72 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 77c | 3,836$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.09 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 80c | 3,765$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 69c | 3,664$2,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.29 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 49c | 3,305$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.6 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 53c | 3,194$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.49 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…effcbacked Yes | 67c | 3,088$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 39c | 3,049$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.99 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 73c | 2,992$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.85 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 18c | 2,982$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.76 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 73c | 2,894$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.11 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 52c | 2,894$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.69 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 62c | 2,854$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.9 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 71c | 2,694$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 67c | 2,651$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.14 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 2,483$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.82 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…b1e9backed Yes | 68c | 2,482$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 53c | 2,410$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.8 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…1800backed No | 38c | 2,403$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 72c | 2,209$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.87 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343e…9c57backed Yes | 52c | 2,151$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…29f3backed Yes | 66c | 2,015$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 68c | 2,000$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…c24fbacked No | 48c | 1,935$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.17 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…9a97backed Yes | 78c | 1,900$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 63c | 1,883$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.16 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 47c | 1,876$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.43 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 30c | 1,841$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.03 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 59c | 1,837$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.37 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 48c | 1,836$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 21c | 1,780$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.27 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 56c | 1,714$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb566…978ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,698$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked Yes | 62c | 1,623$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.63 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 63c | 1,614$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e66…5b07backed Yes | 49c | 1,597$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a36…9729backed Yes | 66c | 1,524$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 58c | 1,467$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed No | 20c | 1,466$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Yes | 62c | 1,400$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 67c | 1,331$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.96 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 19c | 1,318$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.66 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 45c | 1,315$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.35 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 70c | 1,310$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,308$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 65c | 1,307$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 52c | 1,260$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.81 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…909abacked Yes | 25c | 1,253$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 53c | 1,238$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 1,218$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…2404backed Yes | 68c | 1,171$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked No | 51c | 1,110$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,099$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.56 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…af89backed No | 47c | 1,080$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…ecbdbacked Yes | 53c | 1,080$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…8739backed Yes | 53c | 1,080$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c7b4backed No | 47c | 1,080$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,051$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked No | 31c | 1,030$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.9 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 63c | 1,008$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.13 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 78c | 1,005$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.3 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…29febacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…67dbbacked No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,000$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 13c | 977$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.01 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed Yes | 62c | 964.67$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 49c | 964$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.9 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 80c | 956.86$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.37 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…b5eebacked Yes | 72c | 955.54$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…cc6fbacked Yes | 71c | 948.4$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 41c | 942.68$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.45 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 73c | 906.14$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8000…4a8ebacked Yes | 55c | 905.5$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…e99dbacked Yes | 73c | 898.69$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked No | 41c | 891.61$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.12 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 15c | 773.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5d…0734backed No | 13c | 769.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 64c | 734$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…dd00backed No | 16c | 726.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…cb86backed Yes | 42c | 720.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 63c | 687.9$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…5aafbacked Yes | 56c | 671.35$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked No | 44c | 609$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked No | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…cf71backed No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?this page
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in July?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in June?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in October?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.