Middle East · resolved market
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6bb78e75cb95577e3341fb116c131397eec8f52629d40b50fe7bcd1d8175142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $432,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $371,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 23c | 51,931$12,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,181.37 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 20,365$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.6 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 39c | 13,538$5,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,263.34 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 10c | 12,289$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 39c | 11,116$4,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,290.54 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 34c | 10,965$3,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,737.84 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 61c | 9,936$6,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,876.62 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 44c | 8,021$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,542.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 22c | 6,577$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 76c | 6,564$5,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.81 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 44c | 6,451$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.73 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 34c | 6,332$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.62 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 5c | 6,026$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 20c | 5,989$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.98 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 60c | 5,332$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.16 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 47c | 4,521$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.39 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 68c | 4,265$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.52 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 20c | 4,226$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.52 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 30c | 4,162$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.76 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 64c | 3,826$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,755$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 10c | 3,314$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 72c | 3,200$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.84 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 65c | 3,089$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…acc7backed No | 77c | 2,935$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…8788backed Yes | 55c | 2,688$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 10c | 2,581$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.82 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 67c | 2,500$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed No | 78c | 2,460$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.47 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 22c | 2,429$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.88 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 46c | 2,255$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.32 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,210$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 44c | 2,209$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…615fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…f68cbacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 52c | 1,997$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.7 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 33c | 1,939$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.11 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed Yes | 47c | 1,907$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 23c | 1,889$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.81 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…43cebacked Yes | 14c | 1,806$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…29f3backed Yes | 21c | 1,769$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…651dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,743$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5aa…eaa6backed Yes | 57c | 1,670$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…4268backed Yes | 67c | 1,662$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked No | 66c | 1,525$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.29 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…7189backed Yes | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…d478backed Yes | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd21…5444backed No | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…68ffbacked No | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…a4dbbacked Yes | 39c | 1,353$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,349$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.57 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…a232backed Yes | 8c | 1,317$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,228$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…0091backed Yes | 20c | 1,186$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 60c | 1,179$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.01 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,145$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…64a8backed Yes | 53c | 1,070$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,051$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 1,026$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 989.24$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.51 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed No | 68c | 985.43$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.27 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…6fddbacked Yes | 18c | 962.34$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…9a97backed No | 46c | 920.85$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…688fbacked No | 63c | 917.77$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 70c | 902.06$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 21c | 899.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.38 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes | 22c | 898.31$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 11c | 889.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 4c | 859.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed No | 61c | 816.98$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.98 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…dfa8backed No | 62c | 812.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 65c | 810.9$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.94 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…f45bbacked Yes | 7c | 807.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 8c | 788.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…f5efbacked Yes | 11c | 750$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 730.31$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.11 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed Yes | 37c | 714.06$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 17c | 654.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 17c | 601.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 57c | 578.97$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 7c | 565.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 33c | 549$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 49c | 528.12$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.24 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…804dbacked Yes | 19c | 517.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 46c | 497.1$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.39 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…2b9cbacked No | 48c | 452.26$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…b84bbacked Yes | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…7adcbacked No | 56c | 438.58$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…1a5ebacked Yes | 50c | 436.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 34c | 436.13$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…cf71backed Yes | 9c | 426.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…cfa0backed Yes | 15c | 423.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8787…4795backed Yes | 48c | 420.45$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 8c | 420$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 416.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…7838backed No | 76c | 395.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 38c | 391.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?this page
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in July?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in June?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in October?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in September?No won
- No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.