Middle East · resolved market
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a35f9907f79bb299d220304440c3adf4651d9d4b5df4775b5716bc937d52b38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes | 12c | 10,165$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 9,365$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.58 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 13c | 8,450$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 14c | 8,000$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 3c | 7,142$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 10c | 3,183$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.59 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd47…aa89backed Yes | 5c | 3,020$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 2c | 2,786$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,244$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,998$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f28…8f6ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,777$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 9c | 1,680$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.36 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,488$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…83f4backed Yes | 5c | 1,488$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…70b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…36a6backed Yes | 9c | 1,115$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,051$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 10c | 974.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…195abacked Yes | 9c | 750$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 629.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 5c | 572.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 5c | 485.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 8c | 466.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 15c | 419.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…cf71backed Yes | 18c | 352$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 11c | 347.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 4c | 321.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 4c | 260.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 16c | 250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…d247backed Yes | 9c | 211.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…4ea6backed Yes | 12c | 210.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…83fabacked Yes | 10c | 208.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 10c | 201.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…35cabacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…f886backed Yes | 9c | 178.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 17c | 170.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 14c | 160.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 153.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 11c | 90.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in October?this page
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in July?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in June?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in September?No won
- No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.