Middle East · resolved market
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dd080489bda24aa249051c3f75b4e4157fe805b7235279044c8bd800c6bde73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7056…b961backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 3c | 3,835$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 3,704$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 16c | 2,169$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.6 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…2829backed Yes | 13c | 677.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 34c | 549.22$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 13c | 537.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…c183backed Yes | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 14c | 475.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 11c | 461.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb215…87c8backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 10c | 381.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…daf6backed Yes | 13c | 375.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 356.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 10c | 355.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -70%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 79c | 336.65$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 9c | 327.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 12c | 320.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…cfa1backed Yes | 10c | 303$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…36a6backed Yes | 14c | 261.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 10c | 243.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 12c | 225$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 10c | 216.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 9c | 195.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Yes | 18c | 182.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…244fbacked Yes | 15c | 179.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…9356backed No | 73c | 166$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 22c | 158.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…a679backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 18c | 156.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8da…8966backed Yes | 32c | 154.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 33c | 147.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b7…533dbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…32e5backed Yes | 14c | 109.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…4ec0backed No | 69c | 66.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4275…361fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…b04bbacked Yes | 34c | 59.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…7723backed Yes | 32c | 46.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…d90cbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…1cd2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in August?this page
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in July?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in June?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in October?No won
- Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in September?No won
- No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.