TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x752e…81c4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
253
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Movies, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 57 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST6137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$945Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+185.7%+$1,755.16
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$185.72
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,082.32
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$4,708Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,707.73
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,833Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+32.1%+$589.13
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$62.7
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$102
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$93.68
Will Israel strike Yemen 1 time by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$68
Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.16
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$398
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$852Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$852.15
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$485.13
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+25.8%+$103.94
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,896Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+90.4%+$4,426.51
Assad public appearance before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+25%+$74.5
Will Hamas allow IDF to remain in Gaza?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$17.4
US recognizes Syrian government in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50.58
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,258Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+42.9%+$967.83
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,245Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+66.5%+$2,822.65
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$8,746Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$8,746.01
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$26,017Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$26,016.87
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,147Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$1,146.78
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,674Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$2,673.71
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST4645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,632Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+296.3%+$4,834.13
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+25%+$80
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$901Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+84.9%+$764.24
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.5
Will Eric Adams drop out by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$309.68
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.54
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+49.3%+$20
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+28.2%+$20.02
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,548Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$2,548.34
Judge issues restraining order to block Trump's funding freeze by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+30.4%+$14
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,209Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+30.5%+$1,590.99
Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+132.6%+$20.39
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+41.1%+$919.56
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$951Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+89.4%+$850.18
Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$519.89
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during the announcement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+143.1%+$567.63
Will Trump say "Texas" during the announcement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$75.72
Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$116.8
Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$148.42
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50.79
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$220
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+44.9%+$9.3
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+233.3%+$175
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$52.88
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+38.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.8
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+254%+$1,412.07
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+193.9%+$348.35
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$136.64
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,918Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+61.1%+$2,395.75
Trudeau out before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+28.2%+$220
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$7,907Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$7,907.08
Trudeau out in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$183.62
Trudeau resigns by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,718Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$2,717.8
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+43.8%+$77.34
Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST+100%+$169.75
<180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,053Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+68.2%+$718.1
South Korean President impeached by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$2,130.86
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$5,974Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+53.2%+$3,178.05
Will South Korean President lift martial law today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,486Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$1,486.38
Will Ranil Wickremesinghe win the Sri Lankan presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.83
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+387.6%+$555.09
Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+447%+$1,193.66
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2024, EST1747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump comment again on drones in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$185
Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$687Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$687.24
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$138.59
Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 20-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2024, EDT+87.7%+$625.83
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT+400%+$291.2
Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$400
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 13-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2024, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2024, EDT+25%+$20
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 13-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2024, EDT+25%+$5
Trump posts 40 or more times on X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2024, EDT+194.1%+$511.5
Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$136.38
Trump posts 40 or more times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$112.5
Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$271.41
Trump posts 30-39 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$103.72
Trump posts 20-29 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,867Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT+34.8%+$649.68
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT+179%+$818.2
Will Trump post 16-20 times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$800.09
All 17 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST1717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,664Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$3,664.24
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$6,579Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$6,578.78
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$303.89
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$414.18
Will Daniel Naroditsky win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,005Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$1,004.72
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$84.11
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$171.4
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$35.78
Will Alexander Grischuk win the 2024 World Rapid Chess Chamionship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$353.65
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$393Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$393.13
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,580Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$1,580
Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$179.79
Will Ding Liren win Game 8 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$262.65
Will Ding Liren win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$17.3
Will Game 7 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+85.2%+$230
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 US Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT+25%+$100.8
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+81.8%+$1,800
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.2
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$55.19
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+34.1%+$48.3
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$77
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$24
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,219Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+47.1%+$573.74
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$32.84
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+101.8%+$470.13
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+100%+$25
Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$705Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+83.7%+$589.95
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$1,000
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$738Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$737.56
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$6,747Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$6,747.47
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17,175Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+87.9%+$15,089.01
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST1637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$871Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$870.65
Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+25%+$5.22
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$110.65
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,975Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,974.82
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,632Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$2,631.78
Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$130
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$65.64
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,710Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+82.9%+$1,417.16
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,330Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+84.9%+$3,676.4
Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+51.5%+$16.76
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$71.49
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$31.5
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST+88.8%+$484.4
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$72
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$9,190Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+40%+$3,672.77
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$9,772Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$9,772.05
All 16 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$85.55
Commanders vs. Lionsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,757Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+51.4%+$902.89
Steelers vs. Commandersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,973Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+257.2%+$10,217.97
Giants vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,289Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+44.9%+$578.98
Lions vs. Cowboysbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$72
Buccaneers vs. Falconsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$39.73
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$369.68
Giants vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,178Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT+36.5%+$429.67
Dolphins vs. Billsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$519Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$518.89
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2025, EST875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross less than $16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+79.2%+$204.86
Will another movie gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,498Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$2,498.07
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+127.7%+$336.69
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+47.8%+$218.27
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$39.6
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$5,115Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$5,114.66
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$6,835Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+78.5%+$5,365.52
Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT+35.1%+$130
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2024, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+158.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$563Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$563.43
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,053Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+416.3%+$4,382.34
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of January 5 above $176?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+77.4%+$67.23
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$403.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+130.5%+$226.5
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$21.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,378Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,377.97
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,081.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Devilsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+95.4%+$436.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,469Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+25.3%+$371.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.