TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will South Korean President lift martial law today?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$496,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,208 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb21…8145backed No3c36,291$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.264240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed No1c30,849$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No1c28,808$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2611013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e4f…28b6backed No0c23,229$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5190%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No4c19,989$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.671250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked No1c19,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.75449.1%4 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No3c17,637$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.15780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf328…5933backed No1c17,289$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec2e…95ecbacked No1c10,616$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc970…b063backed No1c10,194$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.55520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a4…d649backed No0c10,179$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No12c9,627$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.323839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b6…42e7backed Yes38c7,621$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,691.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd95d…561cbacked No2c6,599$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No2c6,586$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.341435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No2c5,500$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2326…ab0ebacked Yes72c3,815$2,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.51060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No1c3,488$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6416029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4543…3687backed No2c3,348$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ae…a6c2backed No0c3,029$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1166…7c32backed No17c2,781$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No1c2,547$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.026149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No66c2,252$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.381952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+38.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No33c2,171$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.14540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa715…15e2backed Yes39c2,124$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa390…ba6cbacked No11c2,103$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed No1c2,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.731225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No1c1,991$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3825…760abacked No1c1,760$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e67…c256backed No2c1,663$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a37…c66fbacked No1c1,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40c…8192backed No8c1,403$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.731020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb891…a0a4backed Yes21c1,399$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+366.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a58…956fbacked Yes71c1,345$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.47825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed No1c1,328$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62313.2%1 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee99…7758backed Yes19c1,216$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+66%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9738…9818backed No76c1,212$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes55c1,200$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5421723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+194.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1923…3b76backed No13c1,181$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+51.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5908…2f11backed No5c1,070$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No28c1,027$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.913132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x178c…cc33backed No47c1,025$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked No3c1,017$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…a389backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No3c965.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.433625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe642…9440backed Yes58c918.51$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb33…1fe7backed No6c903.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.442744.4%12 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed No10c884.03$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14f…d46dbacked No13c874.91$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a52…3390backed Yes51c864.07$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.54560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes50c854.93$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.651464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes59c854.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed No57c846.2$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.821020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed52…d049backed No1c830.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No78c827.4$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6465154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No2c800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x197a…4932backed No57c793.44$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.531435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b1…7265backed Yes67c696.8$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes34c694.02$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.195135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3391…ed51backed No52c666.04$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked No2c663.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc942…8e4cbacked No78c637.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee9…466dbacked Yes55c632.43$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed No24c591.8$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No15c576.29$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.443030%9 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6320…ee59backed No13c557.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.88520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes22c549.99$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.993423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88dd…5767backed No50c545.6$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c91…1971backed No75c529.72$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acf…f67bbacked No67c515.18$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0efc…8e2fbacked No73c509.59$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37240%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd661…74fdbacked No9c502.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff5…ce78backed Yes61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No40c486.47$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b1a…b404backed No9c455.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No63c438.77$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.261747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes70c435.02$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.562725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes64c421.61$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.38944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No5c413.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4323225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd26b…97c0backed No5c408.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes46c403.79$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.46238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a90…91c2backed No9c399.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No40c374.65$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6fa…aee1backed No4c334.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7d…3bb1backed No65c321.33$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No54c308.73$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.916950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba6…c060backed Yes68c300$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.63100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4327…f14bbacked No66c280.19$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes27c270$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.18123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe54…5ff2backed No18c266.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe96…972cbacked No60c250.19$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked No75c231.58$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e5…a482backed No15c228.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes13c225.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+75.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d9…5c6bbacked No65c223.72$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed No60c222.11$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.334753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb250…15e2backed No44c219.48$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e6…1d2bbacked No30c203.77$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No20c203.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.341,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.