TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbabd…3335

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
260
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 58 out of 100; worst Space at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST21236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 212 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+73.9%+$25.5
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+168.8%+$31.4
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 November 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$21.1
Will Solana dip to $130 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will XRP dip to $2.20 November 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$19.7
Will Solana dip to $140 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will XRP dip to $2.30 November 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10.7
Will XRP dip to $2.40 November 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Solana dip to $130 November 3-9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will XRP dip to $2.20 November 3-9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will XRP dip to $2.10 November 3-9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29.99
Will Solana dip to $150 November 3-9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Solana dip to $150 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$19.6
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 3-9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+1,128.1%+$128.6
Will XRP dip to $2.40 October 27-November 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will XRP dip to $2.50 October 27-November 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.9
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 27-November 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.1
Will Solana dip to $190 October 27-November 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 27-November 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will XRP reach $2.60 October 20-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.4
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.42
Showing 25 of 212 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+131.2%+$74.33
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35.14
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.83
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+55.3%+$7.12
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-84?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75-79?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+400%+$80
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 75?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.72
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.48
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-64?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will 'Moana 2' gross between $135-150m on 5-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$13.3
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+131.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+62.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick14cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$85
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trudeau resigns before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+104.1%+$20.4
Will South Korean President lift martial law today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$14.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+100%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Opalite by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$13.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jack Doohan win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2025 January hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$48.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$15.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$48.62
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.