TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,087,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,360,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,087,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 553 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31d8…e99bbacked Yes2c717,180$15,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,237.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x828f…60bbbacked Yes26c185,578$49,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,036.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b01…b089backed Yes12c163,920$19,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,395.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed No77c128,020$98,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,867.3135123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0de…8cc4backed Yes1c101,302$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.8570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked No76c68,399$52,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,311.0215561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes10c60,179$5,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,745.61333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6653…110dbacked Yes1c50,028$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.9130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes22c46,116$10,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,265.114555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No79c45,510$36,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,344.9987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77dc…7897backed Yes43c44,666$19,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,00090%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5ab…7dc4backed Yes9c39,938$3,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,696.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No78c35,756$27,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,939.922470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f2…f8e3backed Yes14c29,188$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes6c25,218$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.81100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa78f…72dbbacked Yes19c24,046$4,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,567.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5117…d36fbacked Yes51c21,462$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00080%0 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes6c21,159$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.76527.7%4 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes21c21,012$4,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,496.965034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec0…37c1backed Yes1c20,817$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.53220%0 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes11c20,502$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.412630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes2c18,965$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.068010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No59c18,882$11,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,736.325869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c18,823$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.791360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Yes37c17,501$6,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,451.26170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes12c16,810$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.5525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed No71c16,774$11,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,876.9447721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes10c16,722$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.6217229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c16,210$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.922290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…1420backed Yes19c14,602$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e81…8406backed Yes25c13,125$3,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,311.42213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f8a…698abacked Yes0c12,215$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f5c…bd4dbacked Yes3c11,643$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes22c11,177$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.191513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes17c11,073$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.6519439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd78…dcd8backed No67c10,900$7,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6201250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes73c10,004$7,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,312.9719535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No34c10,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.694839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x877f…7acbbacked No46c9,999$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.681580%12 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+57.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No68c9,940$6,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.2155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0708…a9a6backed No28c8,571$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,171.431118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes10c8,567$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.6711210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55fa…6ebabacked Yes24c8,200$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.42per pick51cpaid-88.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes14c8,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes14c7,700$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dba…b54dbacked No70c7,152$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.121675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed No66c6,910$4,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.014165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2803…fb43backed Yes15c6,706$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed No76c6,702$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.419927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…f0e7backed Yes53c6,583$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,52010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f1…dd82backed Yes35c6,583$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No14c6,455$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,535.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe300…8a97backed Yes11c6,408$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.6180%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd190…3949backed Yes12c6,359$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…e051backed Yes1c6,312$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes48c6,287$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00034848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a91…3c5ebacked No34c6,261$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,105.133100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+117.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ce…824bbacked Yes75c6,216$4,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,639.771414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-76.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes2c5,982$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.62128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-88.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked No72c5,862$4,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.74540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes63c5,700$3,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5826950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd469…03f9backed Yes30c5,694$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd292…8ce5backed Yes23c5,631$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd82c…91dbbacked Yes20c5,561$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…657fbacked Yes77c5,557$4,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,278.933240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-14.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ab6…bcb9backed Yes2c5,520$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d3…7acbbacked Yes14c5,503$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed No66c5,479$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d4…92f5backed No70c5,470$3,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.761464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfae6…c165backed Yes18c5,410$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa56c…a440backed Yes15c5,263$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7741656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No19c5,050$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,114.53831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c5,006$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.321,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No61c5,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96013770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Yes12c5,000$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes10c5,000$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.1520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cb…daf3backed Yes19c4,943$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.571711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes2c4,935$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7520%0 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe24d…29cbbacked No41c4,861$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No49c4,850$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,457.2816761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5768…70b0backed Yes12c4,831$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2eb…0ecabacked Yes17c4,732$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed Yes17c4,700$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.04160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe64e…2143backed Yes67c4,365$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.311145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca53…2dffbacked Yes43c4,090$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bdf…efa0backed Yes6c4,059$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187d…4aebbacked Yes4c4,031$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No17c4,016$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.614654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76c8…ecd4backed Yes3c3,990$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9690%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34cf…5430backed Yes8c3,813$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b30…30cfbacked Yes11c3,621$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes14c3,584$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.093625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74bc…e4dabacked Yes4c3,566$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc3…73d1backed No63c3,457$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.981968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes12c3,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400287.1%2 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-85.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes13c3,333$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.482910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbed…10f7backed Yes65c3,332$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes20c2,946$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91f7…a319backed Yes2c2,946$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes14c2,857$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.