Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f1537b9086c1ddbd790420708d9d05073bed00cfd33b29da36868b5fc3ca3bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $279,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $344,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 12c | 35,103$4,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,079.14 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…a9a6backed No | 16c | 18,236$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 4c | 13,945$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.3 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 8c | 13,046$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.53 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 4c | 10,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.15 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 11c | 9,719$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.47 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 13c | 6,754$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.72 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…4842backed Yes | 78c | 6,748$5,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04aa…09eabacked Yes | 76c | 6,618$5,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 11c | 5,158$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.07 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…0a62backed Yes | 79c | 5,000$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 71c | 2,817$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.9 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,080$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 11c | 1,840$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 8c | 1,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…a92fbacked No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked No | 2c | 914.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 69c | 800$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 12c | 499.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…3ecbbacked No | 13c | 304.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…4815backed No | 21c | 299.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…e808backed No | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3a26backed No | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 14c | 139$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 72c | 138.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…a296backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…f53dbacked No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…92f5backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed No | 16c | 76.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…64e5backed Yes | 80c | 70.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…e9dabacked Yes | 77c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…1300backed Yes | 72c | 35.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…a252backed Yes | 79c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in October?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.