TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x637d…2392

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
247
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 66 out of 100 (+0.15 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 66 out of 100; worst Premier League at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST7048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$148
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$133
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.65
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$94
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.08
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44.84
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.32
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$276.15
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+133.9%+$33.47
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+81.8%+$40.91
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+44.9%+$22.46
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95.2
Ethereum all time high by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$321.15
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+96.1%+$49
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$357.55
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$197.33
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+257.1%+$72
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+185.7%+$29.25
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$66
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+640.4%+$513.43
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST6429.7%19 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hornets vs. Bucksbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$33.6
Lakers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$64
Nets vs. Magicbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Spurs vs. Sunsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Pelicans vs. Bucksbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.25
Rockets vs. Clippersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+619.4%+$278.74
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Pelicans vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$116.79
Grizzlies vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$45.97
76ers vs. Heatbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Kings vs. Pistonsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+204.4%+$204.37
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Kings vs. Cavaliersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$150.48
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Grizzlies vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Timberwolves vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$61.29
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT3826.3%10 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Premier League — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+44%+$107
Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+203%+$203.03
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+115.4%+$375
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT+37%+$64.47
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$354.03
Will Manchester United vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$81.11
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Tottenham vs. Southampton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Southampton win on 2025-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.15
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+300%+$450
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$586Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$586
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will West Ham win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$106.15
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+41.7%+$33.35
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+376.2%+$150.48
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$60
Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$137.16
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2025, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rangers vs. Hurricanesbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$107
Islanders vs. Flyersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Capitals vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Wild vs. Flamesbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Ducks vs. Kingsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Predators vs. Utahbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$163.16
Canucks vs. Avalanchebacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$185.71
Jets vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Red Wings vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$58.93
Bruins vs. Devilsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$166.94
Flames vs. Sharksbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$37.65
Blues vs. Jetsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Lightning vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Panthers vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Golden Knights vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Kraken vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Hurricanes vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$212.5
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Penguins vs. Starsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$257.14
Rangers vs. Devilsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Wild vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$88.68
Blackhawks vs. Capitalsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Hurricanes vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$177.78
Islanders vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$150
All 24 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jaguars vs. 49ersbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$70.15
Colts vs. Ramsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.55
Dolphins vs. Jetsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Chiefs vs. Broncosbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Panthers vs. Falconsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+334.8%+$396.88
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+177.8%+$266.67
Ravens vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$134.78
Titans vs. Chargersbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$33.22
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$199.8
Jaguars vs. Eaglesbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Saints vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST+426.3%+$162
Patriots vs. Titansbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$42
Dolphins vs. Billsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$84
Chargers vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$60
Broncos vs. Ravensbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$37.04
Texans vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+81.8%+$129.04
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-56.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$118
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$370.53
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$254.6
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+51.5%+$34
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+37%+$27
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$33
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+26.3%+$86.67
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$188.78
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+49.3%+$24.63
Israel military strike against Iran in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$86
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$19.5
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$30
All 16 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-75.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+103.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida vs. Houstonbacked Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$280
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.