Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3397bfce4b2b513ae72da122de53f4f3747c9660fd62cb2b980132c6e7e4923d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,246,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,763,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,246,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 554 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 412,763$3,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,160.57 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…dec2backed Yes | 0c | 315,583$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 218,945$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.99 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…b980backed Yes | 0c | 136,549$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 128,392$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.34 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 121,903$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.61 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc312…9955backed Yes | 1c | 101,833$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.49 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.33per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 89,411$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.94 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 3c | 88,892$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.53 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 2c | 78,913$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.79 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…c763backed Yes | 1c | 72,415$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 1c | 56,484$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.18 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 41,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes | 2c | 39,484$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.27 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 8c | 37,102$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.73 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 0c | 33,871$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e97bbacked Yes | 0c | 33,731$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…74b7backed Yes | 0c | 33,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc019…91babacked Yes | 2c | 26,617$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 1c | 25,025$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…69c5backed Yes | 5c | 24,242$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.98 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 2c | 22,906$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 1c | 22,777$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.77 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 2c | 21,252$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.74 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 1c | 21,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes | 1c | 18,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 17,929$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 7c | 17,890$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 5c | 15,894$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.5 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3f…ae42backed Yes | 19c | 15,857$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 0c | 15,042$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…8dcbbacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 0c | 14,478$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…1d57backed Yes | 71c | 14,111$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f26…816cbacked Yes | 25c | 14,003$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 13,723$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 0c | 12,724$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Yes | 15c | 11,121$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 6c | 10,905$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.55 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,152$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…c75ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.99 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…5303backed Yes | 2c | 9,490$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked Yes | 1c | 9,479$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 0c | 9,304$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfebf…33e7backed Yes | 2c | 8,739$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,111$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,950$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 6c | 7,778$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.81 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…fa91backed Yes | 1c | 7,233$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…08a7backed Yes | 15c | 7,215$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…2afdbacked Yes | 2c | 7,085$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb689…f67cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,760$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 6,396$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.79 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…9b9dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,345$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…3ce3backed Yes | 4c | 6,259$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 1c | 6,100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 13c | 6,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 5,963$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,916$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…bec7backed Yes | 2c | 5,856$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 13c | 5,817$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.63 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…d9f3backed Yes | 2c | 5,808$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 1c | 5,800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,685$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 19c | 5,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 9c | 5,342$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 5c | 5,321$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.98 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 3c | 5,291$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 5c | 5,230$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 14c | 5,214$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.08 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f0…001dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,146$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 72c | 5,105$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.3 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a81…4682backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 4,980$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.17 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5a91backed Yes | 1c | 4,950$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 16c | 4,920$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.97 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…358cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,867$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…87cbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,762$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd8…0e4dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,761$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…6e0dbacked Yes | 14c | 4,733$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 3c | 4,594$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a9…bafabacked Yes | 2c | 4,518$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 4,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…533fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,484$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed Yes | 17c | 4,477$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 1c | 4,400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…3126backed Yes | 1c | 4,333$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.