TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,376,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,529,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,376,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 793 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No72c194,518$139,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139,266.4914821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c61,338$45,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,885.864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3305…31dabacked Yes34c43,295$14,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,617.51520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes26c42,611$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,610.76132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes17c23,951$4,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,829.254524.4%11 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6e…d642backed No71c21,326$15,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,098.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No1c19,199$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4649023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked No72c18,355$13,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,237.567732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No69c17,716$12,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,200.343933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3578…d9febacked No1c16,321$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…5764backed Yes18c16,229$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,230.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+337.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd721…e215backed Yes29c16,086$4,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,456.131788.2%15 W · 2 L+10.6wins+0.62per pick26cpaid+259.4%equal weight78+0.25 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes29c15,808$4,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,273.2816743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No76c14,577$11,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,097.7719531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed No71c14,000$9,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9403138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes25c11,895$2,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,909.438150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Yes34c10,671$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,077.781250%6 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+74.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes19c10,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,099.9822547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No18c9,640$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.7921531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes30c9,473$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,592.9742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c9,380$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.775071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes21c9,302$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,330.685964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No70c9,081$6,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,356.3622627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b9…275abacked Yes23c8,956$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,875.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+330.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No78c8,929$6,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,980.24042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8cb…1f21backed No79c8,865$6,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,970.5450%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadba…f4e0backed Yes23c8,782$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,783.561136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes35c8,000$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,178.481764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No65c7,664$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.075545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0276…19d8backed Yes31c7,361$2,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,051.82540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No37c7,102$2,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,637.0515541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No69c7,000$4,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,829.989145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No66c6,610$4,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,329.7128427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes30c6,477$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,514.686045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes16c6,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,25012152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x92ea…c4a6backed Yes32c6,205$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,221.592025%5 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No56c6,164$3,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,422.1212944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea2…9ad4backed Yes36c6,155$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,954.771030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid-26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No76c6,098$4,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,648.6231241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes32c6,052$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,115.551662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed No77c6,024$4,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,638.314537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…2ab0backed No78c6,009$4,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,676.58520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes30c5,627$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,939.197337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed No80c5,550$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4401637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No68c5,435$3,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,722.0412038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e11…cbcdbacked Yes15c5,334$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,533.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+88.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd8…9d40backed No2c5,267$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8f…a3b1backed No73c5,200$3,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7961637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No59c5,075$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.4810335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes30c5,055$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,558.3114039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8ab5…818bbacked Yes31c5,053$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,487.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked Yes37c5,040$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,197.014100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+149.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes35c5,000$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,251.783770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3801…cbe8backed Yes33c4,817$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,220.291275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked No76c4,744$3,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,619.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd821…33a2backed Yes23c4,687$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,609.09785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+134.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No67c4,491$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.0635631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No77c4,449$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,437.248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c7d…9881backed Yes36c4,393$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,791.432445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c4,370$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.4589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7fd…6ae2backed Yes30c4,333$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,048.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+176.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7f5…3f92backed Yes28c4,328$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,127.821464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+42.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a53…505abacked Yes27c4,274$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,138.012429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2433…8235backed Yes36c4,181$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,684.04333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes30c4,144$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,908.711376.9%10 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.40per pick37cpaid+149.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes17c4,090$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3922810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked No69c4,046$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.869736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e32…3408backed No76c4,000$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,039.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes31c3,957$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.511553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+74.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes33c3,944$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,648.3435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes26c3,846$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.155347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xefaf…6289backed No71c3,808$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,692520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed No76c3,790$2,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.814841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes32c3,590$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.229222.8%21 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed Yes34c3,527$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.573441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b7…a5d2backed Yes31c3,501$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,415.651827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes33c3,500$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.9835355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No77c3,478$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,671.7435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Yes33c3,295$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.381154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No51c3,146$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.4718738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…7cadbacked Yes32c3,125$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1251435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick18cpaid+142.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes33c3,036$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.354526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes28c3,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1608920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc43…1540backed Yes23c3,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3103467.6%23 W · 11 L+8.8wins+0.26per pick42cpaid+108.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes35c2,858$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.672725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x188e…70d8backed Yes36c2,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.672272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes32c2,751$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.964161%25 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes66c2,666$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.887943%34 W · 45 L+11.7wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+49.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No69c2,664$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.43030%9 W · 21 L-9.6wins-0.32per pick62cpaid-55.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5b30…c01abacked No70c2,571$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797156.7%1 W · 14 L-7.7wins-0.52per pick58cpaid-91.6%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x584c…623fbacked Yes33c2,537$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.631442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab7…5b3ebacked No79c2,532$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.2840%0 W · 4 L-2.8wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes48c2,517$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.241794.1%16 W · 1 L+7.3wins+0.43per pick51cpaid+118.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No77c2,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9256462.5%40 W · 24 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e31…2f76backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a5…e382backed Yes16c2,488$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+313.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e5a…2afdbacked Yes20c2,457$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.421811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5576…0a66backed No71c2,400$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes23c2,300$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7602330.4%7 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+48.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes34c2,190$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.542920.7%6 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.