Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeea3c1ef1764cffd540a50c7c85513ede593ce3d4bfe452aec6a0bce3e3b4d62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,376,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,529,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,376,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 793 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 72c | 194,518$139,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139,266.49 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 61,338$45,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,885.8 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…31dabacked Yes | 34c | 43,295$14,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,617.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 26c | 42,611$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,610.7 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…1feabacked Yes | 17c | 23,951$4,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,829.25 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6e…d642backed No | 71c | 21,326$15,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,098.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 19,199$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 72c | 18,355$13,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,237.56 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 69c | 17,716$12,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,200.34 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 1c | 16,321$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…5764backed Yes | 18c | 16,229$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,230.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +337.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 29c | 16,086$4,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,456.13 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 29c | 15,808$4,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,273.28 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 76c | 14,577$11,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,097.77 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 71c | 14,000$9,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,940 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 25c | 11,895$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,909.43 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 34c | 10,671$3,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,077.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,099.98 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 18c | 9,640$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.79 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 30c | 9,473$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,592.97 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 9,380$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 21c | 9,302$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,330.68 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 70c | 9,081$6,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,356.36 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b9…275abacked Yes | 23c | 8,956$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,875.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +330.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 78c | 8,929$6,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,980.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…1f21backed No | 79c | 8,865$6,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,970.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…f4e0backed Yes | 23c | 8,782$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,783.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes | 35c | 8,000$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,178.48 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 7,664$4,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,996.07 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 31c | 7,361$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,051.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 37c | 7,102$2,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.05 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 69c | 7,000$4,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,829.98 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 66c | 6,610$4,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,329.71 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 30c | 6,477$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,514.68 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 16c | 6,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…c4a6backed Yes | 32c | 6,205$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,221.59 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 56c | 6,164$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,422.12 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Yes | 36c | 6,155$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,954.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 76c | 6,098$4,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,648.62 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes | 32c | 6,052$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,115.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 77c | 6,024$4,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,638.31 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2ab0backed No | 78c | 6,009$4,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,676.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 30c | 5,627$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,939.19 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 80c | 5,550$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 68c | 5,435$3,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,722.04 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…cbcdbacked Yes | 15c | 5,334$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,533.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…9d40backed No | 2c | 5,267$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed No | 73c | 5,200$3,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,796 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 59c | 5,075$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.48 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 30c | 5,055$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,558.31 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…818bbacked Yes | 31c | 5,053$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9b7bbacked Yes | 37c | 5,040$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,197.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,251.78 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…cbe8backed Yes | 33c | 4,817$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220.29 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2e…e72ebacked No | 76c | 4,744$3,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,619.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd821…33a2backed Yes | 23c | 4,687$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,609.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 46cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 67c | 4,491$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.06 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 77c | 4,449$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.2 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 36c | 4,393$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 4,370$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,027.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…6ae2backed Yes | 30c | 4,333$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 27cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f5…3f92backed Yes | 28c | 4,328$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked Yes | 27c | 4,274$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,138.01 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…8235backed Yes | 36c | 4,181$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes | 30c | 4,144$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.71 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.40per pick | 37cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes | 17c | 4,090$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,392 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 69c | 4,046$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.86 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…3408backed No | 76c | 4,000$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,039.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 31c | 3,957$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 33c | 3,944$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,648.34 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 26c | 3,846$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.15 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…6289backed No | 71c | 3,808$2,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,692 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 76c | 3,790$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865.81 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 32c | 3,590$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450.22 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…59e5backed Yes | 34c | 3,527$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.57 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…a5d2backed Yes | 31c | 3,501$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 33c | 3,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.98 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 77c | 3,478$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.74 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Yes | 33c | 3,295$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 51c | 3,146$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.47 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…7cadbacked Yes | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 33c | 3,036$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.35 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes | 35c | 2,858$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.67 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Yes | 36c | 2,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.67 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,751$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.96 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 66c | 2,666$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.88 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 69c | 2,664$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…c01abacked No | 70c | 2,571$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -7.7wins | -0.52per pick | 58cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…623fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,537$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…5b3ebacked No | 79c | 2,532$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 48c | 2,517$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.24 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 77c | 2,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e31…2f76backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…e382backed Yes | 16c | 2,488$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +313.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…2afdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,457$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.42 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…0a66backed No | 71c | 2,400$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 23c | 2,300$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,190$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.54 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.