Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680efda99a9c43cae7a318972ec3156a6b100b48a43d12478bcbcea85eb58ed7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,489,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,795,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,489,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,079 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 2c | 1,666,509$29,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,696 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 748,792$7,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,577.89 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 14c | 634,501$87,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,412.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 0c | 400,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 2c | 332,890$5,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,923.02 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 307,995$4,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,132.24 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…9334backed Yes | 2c | 300,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,099.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed Yes | 1c | 254,988$3,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 1c | 187,569$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.35 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa562…b252backed Yes | 2c | 160,192$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 7c | 130,080$9,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,187.16 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2556…1007backed Yes | 1c | 127,823$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 0c | 111,020$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2c…a07dbacked Yes | 1c | 97,091$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 76c | 90,400$68,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,696.11 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae4…8ca3backed Yes | 2c | 87,933$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 2c | 85,045$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.54 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 2c | 79,500$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.99 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 1c | 72,684$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.47 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 1c | 72,501$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.48 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…dc82backed Yes | 1c | 70,592$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 67,834$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.99 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes | 1c | 67,215$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.81 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +257%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 66,704$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.69 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 8c | 65,168$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,130.13 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed No | 78c | 61,430$48,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,390.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 3c | 59,512$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…64febacked Yes | 2c | 59,504$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +428.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed Yes | 1c | 58,186$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…7f4bbacked Yes | 2c | 57,687$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…b772backed Yes | 1c | 55,189$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 54,429$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.47 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…972cbacked Yes | 3c | 52,339$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.97 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7a…5930backed Yes | 4c | 51,404$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 49,700$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 45,508$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.17 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…ad58backed Yes | 1c | 44,895$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 6c | 43,243$2,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.3 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…6f9abacked Yes | 1c | 42,947$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…267bbacked Yes | 2c | 40,487$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 19c | 39,788$7,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,596.34 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…bbc7backed Yes | 12c | 39,225$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…0f1fbacked Yes | 1c | 39,006$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…0169backed Yes | 2c | 38,959$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 18c | 36,738$6,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,494.6 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 2c | 34,323$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.34 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e84…0943backed Yes | 2c | 31,468$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…3ab0backed Yes | 1c | 30,997$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…5cc3backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…8591backed Yes | 2c | 28,543$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 10cpaid | +873.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc171…4b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 27,605$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 7cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed6d…8992backed Yes | 2c | 26,509$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 11c | 25,870$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.69 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 1c | 25,402$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 31cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…2547backed Yes | 1c | 23,885$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…5f73backed Yes | 3c | 23,048$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 21,895$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.63 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 2c | 21,610$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 21,583$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.27 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa130…05dcbacked Yes | 2c | 21,519$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 8cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…8b84backed Yes | 1c | 21,500$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c2…4d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d2…efb2backed Yes | 1c | 21,203$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 1c | 20,842$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.29 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 5c | 19,663$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.15 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…3117backed Yes | 5c | 19,416$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 10c | 19,374$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.37 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 3c | 19,319$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.24 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 10c | 19,261$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.27 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…0fb6backed Yes | 10c | 19,163$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 3c | 19,058$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…48b6backed Yes | 1c | 19,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…e5a9backed Yes | 15c | 19,000$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 2c | 18,941$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 6c | 18,818$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.18 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes | 4c | 18,697$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…d050backed Yes | 8c | 18,439$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 1c | 18,200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 18,172$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.51 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…a878backed Yes | 11c | 17,614$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…be35backed Yes | 4c | 17,394$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…6ae2backed Yes | 18c | 17,029$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 27cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 78c | 16,977$13,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680.09 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…1ceebacked Yes | 6c | 16,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 19c | 16,191$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…4fa7backed Yes | 1c | 16,147$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 15c | 15,601$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.48 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…a51abacked Yes | 2c | 15,500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 3cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes | 10c | 14,800$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 1c | 14,754$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 14,749$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 14,732$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.94 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…ab73backed Yes | 2c | 14,652$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…6e0dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 9c | 14,452$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef48…ef15backed Yes | 11c | 14,443$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02b…ab4fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,753$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 13,600$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.6 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…6253backed Yes | 3c | 13,532$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.82 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.