Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9f0b0c67a815b423a435c523dc9358d98ab5633de5108fe44e203e8d6c2f062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,844,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,458,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,844,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 1c | 300,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 193,565$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.3 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 112,023$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.18 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes | 1c | 104,326$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 92,740$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.54 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…191bbacked Yes | 0c | 69,521$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…af03backed Yes | 1c | 53,791$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…cbffbacked Yes | 2c | 52,504$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 10cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 49,729$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 47,667$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 1c | 45,632$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.87 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…7f47backed Yes | 1c | 41,544$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 1c | 40,526$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.68 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafac…4a84backed Yes | 1c | 36,396$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 1c | 36,046$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.95 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…dfc4backed Yes | 2c | 33,267$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.61 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 2c | 26,833$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.38 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 1c | 24,100$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.8 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…9b9dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,583$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…547ebacked Yes | 2c | 19,292$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 2c | 18,654$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 17,728$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.76 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…97e2backed Yes | 1c | 17,672$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +418.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes | 1c | 17,588$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 17,050$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…533fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,032$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc7…9edebacked Yes | 1c | 16,362$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 5c | 14,937$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.97 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 1c | 14,477$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 2c | 14,372$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.17 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 1c | 13,828$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…4efcbacked Yes | 1c | 13,824$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…9d4bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,468$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 1c | 13,400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 6c | 13,183$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.36 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 1c | 12,707$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…b52abacked Yes | 2c | 12,099$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…5d01backed Yes | 2c | 11,920$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 11,919$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…8bb4backed Yes | 0c | 11,449$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 2c | 11,107$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…65d9backed Yes | 3c | 10,404$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…bf25backed Yes | 1c | 10,036$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 9,554$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,279$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 6c | 8,933$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.5 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…fa91backed Yes | 1c | 8,675$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 1c | 8,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…3117backed Yes | 6c | 8,358$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 8,261$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.9 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 1c | 8,085$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…6963backed Yes | 1c | 8,036$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 7,850$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…228dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,558$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3dd1backed Yes | 4c | 7,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…a771backed Yes | 2c | 7,454$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,428$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea4…6385backed Yes | 1c | 7,390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 2c | 7,325$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 0c | 7,050$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb096…5638backed Yes | 1c | 6,994$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…fc45backed Yes | 1c | 6,826$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…c852backed Yes | 1c | 6,818$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…e0b2backed Yes | 2c | 6,800$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +143%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…54d9backed Yes | 1c | 6,771$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 5c | 6,157$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.26 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…3ce3backed Yes | 2c | 6,123$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 1c | 6,053$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…1d77backed Yes | 3c | 6,028$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 2c | 6,012$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802c…97bbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Yes | 20c | 6,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…d50abacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 3c | 5,925$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,827$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 1c | 5,800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 5,698$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.24 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 1c | 5,662$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…69c5backed Yes | 11c | 5,620$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.89 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…a9c9backed Yes | 1c | 5,400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e51…141dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,234$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7d…b858backed Yes | 22c | 5,177$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,158$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…eab6backed Yes | 3c | 5,137$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…8dcbbacked Yes | 3c | 5,055$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.26 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.