Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da48084a431e8c888b18c89e33f317207c8f5282605a052e155dcde9a4b9ac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $290,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 61c | 32,050$19,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,419.52 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 33c | 15,151$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,151.14 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 41c | 13,905$5,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,185.46 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 0c | 10,250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 10,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 10,000$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…923abacked No | 58c | 8,397$4,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,903.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 46c | 5,734$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.52 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes | 48c | 5,415$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,816.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 5,076$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,791.9 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…709ebacked Yes | 50c | 5,015$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,515.32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…1611backed No | 1c | 4,905$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fa…19f7backed Yes | 50c | 4,558$2,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 4c | 4,150$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.37 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 39c | 3,801$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.08 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 68c | 3,355$2,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,281.49 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…7535backed Yes | 31c | 3,352$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.75 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…9d40backed No | 2c | 2,394$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 56c | 2,250$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.96 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 31c | 2,222$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.2 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,100$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.37 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…d25bbacked No | 69c | 2,100$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.4wins | -0.55per pick | 67cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3280…ea74backed Yes | 48c | 2,071$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes | 51c | 2,040$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 40c | 1,842$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.48 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 68c | 1,811$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 39c | 1,730$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.37 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 43c | 1,702$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.79 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,600$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.99 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,556$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.43 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked Yes | 37c | 1,533$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.16 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 50c | 1,502$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.46 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 59c | 1,478$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.82 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 56c | 1,346$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.92 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 34c | 1,300$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 1,270$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.8 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 14c | 1,216$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.28 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,200$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.99 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 49c | 1,200$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 59c | 1,162$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.66 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,131$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.7 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca32…2c0bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,109$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…63f6backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 69c | 963.27$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.18 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6e…16ccbacked No | 20c | 900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…161bbacked Yes | 45c | 784.16$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 761.71$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.97 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 47c | 632.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.75 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 64c | 625$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 62c | 606.42$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.6 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 49c | 569.04$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.37 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 3c | 566$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 565.5$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.68 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 31c | 540.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.07 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked No | 64c | 514.75$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…4138backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -11.0wins | -0.33per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed No | 47c | 499.98$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5126…da91backed Yes | 44c | 455.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…c713backed Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 45c | 447.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.94 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 55c | 415.31$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.42 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…de7cbacked No | 60c | 414.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked Yes | 41c | 411.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed No | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -9.8wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 59c | 379.48$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 19c | 378.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…b525backed Yes | 48c | 354.04$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 55c | 343.36$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 45c | 342.19$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.22 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…f046backed No | 51c | 328.57$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 45c | 307$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.23 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…bf73backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143a…1566backed Yes | 43c | 274.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 49c | 262.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…7382backed No | 56c | 260.71$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 52c | 259.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 68c | 254.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed No | 69c | 249.85$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -8.2wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 60c | 248.96$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…e559backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…708ebacked No | 62c | 241.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x890f…22efbacked Yes | 47c | 238.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…57d9backed Yes | 32c | 229.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f6…1905backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…8946backed Yes | 48c | 210.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…183abacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.