TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$269,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$290,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,970 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No61c32,050$19,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,419.5214821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes33c15,151$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,151.146132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes41c13,905$5,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,185.4635355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No0c10,250$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No0c10,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0217414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c10,000$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,70064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfdb8…923abacked No58c8,397$4,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,903.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes46c5,734$2,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,072.527732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes48c5,415$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+147%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No55c5,076$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,791.95545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb959…709ebacked Yes50c5,015$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.321376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2126…1611backed No1c4,905$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20fa…19f7backed Yes50c4,558$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+112.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No4c4,150$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3721531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes39c3,801$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.0842818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No68c3,355$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.499145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9be6…7535backed Yes31c3,352$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,312.751872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+75.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1dd8…9d40backed No2c2,394$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No56c2,250$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.9618929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes31c2,222$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.28150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed Yes47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes38c2,100$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.378920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked No69c2,100$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-4.4wins-0.55per pick67cpaid-78.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Yes48c2,071$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes51c2,040$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.971764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04010335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes40c1,842$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.4810043%43 W · 57 L+13.0wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked No68c1,811$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes39c1,730$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.3715541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes43c1,702$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.7912038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes71c1,600$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.991794.1%16 W · 1 L+7.3wins+0.43per pick51cpaid+118.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes31c1,556$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.4310444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe30e…eadabacked Yes37c1,533$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.164334.9%15 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No50c1,502$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.4612944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No59c1,478$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.8226138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No56c1,346$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.9251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc43…1540backed Yes34c1,300$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8583467.6%23 W · 11 L+8.8wins+0.26per pick42cpaid+108.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes42c1,270$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No14c1,216$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.282020%4 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes33c1,200$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80412525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.995964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes49c1,200$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked No59c1,162$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.669736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes47c1,131$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.735819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca32…2c0bbacked Yes48c1,109$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.52475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+185.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes29c999.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71045843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No69c963.27$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.1848923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6e…16ccbacked No20c900$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037d…161bbacked Yes45c784.16$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c761.71$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.9767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed No2c700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes47c632.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.754161%25 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No64c625$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40038237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No62c606.42$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.619531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked No49c569.04$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.372828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c566$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.982438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c565.5$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6858927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes31c540.68$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.0731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a6c…741fbacked No64c514.75$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.393135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57c7…4138backed No68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34050%0 W · 5 L-3.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30520336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked No56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803330.3%10 W · 23 L-11.0wins-0.33per pick64cpaid-57.6%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xf95f…f988backed No47c499.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.992611.5%3 W · 23 L-8.2wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-69.5%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5126…da91backed Yes44c455.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.811546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.27per pick20cpaid+63.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6152…c713backed Yes44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+136.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes45c447.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.945246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No55c415.31$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.425745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9155…de7cbacked No60c414.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc219…04fabacked Yes41c411.5$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.381650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b90…1d17backed No48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1923525.7%9 W · 26 L-9.8wins-0.28per pick54cpaid-58.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No59c379.48$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.699942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No19c378.81$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9750130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92e6…b525backed Yes48c354.04$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.281353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+45.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No55c343.36$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.813030%9 W · 21 L-9.6wins-0.32per pick62cpaid-55.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes45c342.19$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2216041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.914163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+53.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x385b…f046backed No51c328.57$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes45c307$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2313348.1%64 W · 69 L+20.7wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+143.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked No16c299.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c9…bf73backed Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.12633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x143a…1566backed Yes43c274.42$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No49c262.67$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9819056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf526…7382backed No56c260.71$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked Yes52c259.62$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.625954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No68c254.92$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.68345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes33c250$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.512054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No67c250$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.51010%1 W · 9 L-4.0wins-0.40per pick50cpaid-77.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc28d…1773backed Yes34c250$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1651540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed No69c249.85$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1723438.2%13 W · 21 L-8.2wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-39.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes60c248.96$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.19040%36 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe168…e559backed Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.92661.5%16 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+42.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e0f…708ebacked No62c241.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.363638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x890f…22efbacked Yes47c238.3$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.36100%6 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+110.3%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d0f…57d9backed Yes32c229.35$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.961637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick56cpaid+14%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8f6…1905backed Yes44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.271145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+213.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdab3…8946backed Yes48c210.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aaa…183abacked Yes48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.