TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf95f…f988

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Music, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Music at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 32.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2611.5%3 W · 23 L-8.2wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-69.5%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+199%+$408.72
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.7
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+257.1%+$51.43
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$478.6
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$315
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$253.17
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$735Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$734.75
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,162Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,161.57
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,583Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,583.4
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,468Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,467.88
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$234.99
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,822Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,822.42
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,865Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,865.38
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.69
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$27.16
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+36.8%+$44.13
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.19
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$148.5
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$379
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+513.1%+$1,580.24
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.14
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$209
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$538
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$94.68
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-40.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.35
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+90.8%+$157
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$20.77
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.6%+$104.69
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-62.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+160.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,021Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+34.2%+$349.11
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+59.7%+$6.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+60%+$157.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.