Commodities · resolved market
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156214d3d62322c191dafef0e6d9233f76bcd98bf49b035a644954795c49e5c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $598,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $587,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $598,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 714 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa3c…3111backed No | 26c | 38,338$9,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,967.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 76c | 24,399$18,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,857.04 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 12c | 19,481$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 73c | 17,929$13,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,872.26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 19c | 14,087$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed No | 25c | 12,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 75c | 11,865$8,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…33a7backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked No | 16c | 9,952$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 13c | 8,534$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.55 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 8,103$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.29 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…eeb1backed No | 35c | 6,521$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 21c | 6,080$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 16c | 5,948$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.85 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…8a99backed No | 34c | 5,915$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 2c | 5,606$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 24c | 4,978$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 10c | 4,969$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…e32cbacked No | 25c | 4,563$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked Yes | 74c | 4,419$3,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108e…d5d0backed No | 22c | 4,292$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 22c | 4,273$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 30c | 4,244$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 18c | 4,197$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,188$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 12c | 3,717$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 24c | 3,706$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 77c | 3,036$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 3c | 2,918$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed No | 23c | 2,727$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…17acbacked No | 26c | 2,708$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 21c | 2,703$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 27c | 2,636$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 71c | 2,595$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…a144backed No | 4c | 2,465$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 20c | 2,327$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 7c | 2,107$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 17c | 2,105$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.38 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 19c | 2,103$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.73 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 19c | 2,023$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.17 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,999$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 73c | 1,906$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec51…c132backed No | 17c | 1,881$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…cae0backed No | 26c | 1,847$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 9c | 1,820$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 21c | 1,722$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.65 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed No | 21c | 1,700$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…248dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,692$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…a0a2backed No | 9c | 1,665$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 70c | 1,542$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 71c | 1,484$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 74c | 1,438$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.78 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked No | 27c | 1,395$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 1,392$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.14 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 1,384$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.75 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x580a…dd83backed No | 16c | 1,371$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 75c | 1,370$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 76c | 1,361$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 11c | 1,352$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 23c | 1,316$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.75 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed No | 21c | 1,314$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…3750backed No | 31c | 1,308$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…9813backed No | 7c | 1,296$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,295$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 67c | 1,269$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…a183backed Yes | 75c | 1,262$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 30c | 1,254$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.19 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 72c | 1,252$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed No | 13c | 1,180$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…c13fbacked No | 23c | 1,167$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550b…771abacked Yes | 63c | 1,150$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 21c | 1,111$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 71c | 1,085$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.97 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…0fe0backed No | 25c | 1,065$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 77c | 1,058$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 17c | 1,041$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.69 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 77c | 1,027$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.92 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 30c | 1,025$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 36c | 1,004$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…db68backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 50c | 999.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 73c | 999.99$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 14c | 993.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…4239backed Yes | 61c | 971.91$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…d47ebacked No | 17c | 944.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b30dbacked No | 28c | 917.24$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 895.94$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.39 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Yes | 74c | 891.11$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 76c | 860.94$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 854.3$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…af25backed No | 27c | 849.97$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 47c | 837.98$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.51 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaf…4637backed No | 25c | 832.93$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 54c | 822.73$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.07 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 76c | 812.68$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.36 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 37c | 800$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked Yes | 72c | 797.3$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…74eabacked Yes | 64c | 782.71$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afa…7960backed Yes | 71c | 782.54$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.