TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd750…e32c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Carlos Ulberg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,491Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$5,068.62
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Paulo Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$1,399.97
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Curtis Blaydes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$469.98
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Oumar Sy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.83
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,025
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ruffy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,058Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+117.4%+$1,242
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Hooker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$506
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mullarkey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$240
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$513
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$2,039.99
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yadong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$510
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$500
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Namajunas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$242.99
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,105Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+53.8%+$594.99
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24,651Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24,650.77
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12,391Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3,700.28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$998Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$998
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+257.1%+$360
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,777Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,776.72
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$96,257Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$96,256.55
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,361Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+592%+$13,976.96
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$80
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$55.41
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$191.56
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,020Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$479.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,002Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$598
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$901Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+104.1%+$937.56
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,066Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,065.99
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.6
Bucks vs. Netsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Clippers vs. Jazzbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+53.8%+$210
Bucks vs. 76ersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$119.99
All 5 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15,674Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+103.3%+$16,196.22
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$7,207Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+40.8%+$2,943.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Capitals vs. Oilersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,034Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$1,033.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$1,330
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Washington State Cougars vs. Oregon State Beaversbacked Oregon State Beavers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$931Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+104.1%+$969
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,950Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$550
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,020
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$1,140.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$109.71
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.