Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39446dcc0c3bf7c56209a0f7cd7a82802381b17a9bba47baaa6c33cb7757e685

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,328,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $870,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,328,907 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 587 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	36,807$1,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,116.71	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	34,442$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.44	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	0c	22,630$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.63	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	0c	20,937$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.59	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	19,631$1,844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,844.24	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	11c	18,915$2,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,034.46	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes	0c	18,690$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	2c	13,729$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.4	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	13,479$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.48	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee3…f07ebacked Yes	17c	12,511$2,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,090.86	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+181.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…019cbacked Yes	0c	12,190$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	78c	11,640$9,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,537.85	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	20c	11,008$2,171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,171.16	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	9c	11,000$1,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008.85	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	36c	10,533$3,834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,834.16	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	10,258$1,776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,776.16	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	9,066$1,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,046.9	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	9,000$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.3	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	8,907$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.54	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	3c	8,520$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.7	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	13c	8,071$1,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,086	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	1c	8,033$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.82	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	1c	8,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	14c	7,071$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987.86	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	6c	6,803$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.13	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	5c	6,780$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.64	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed No	80c	6,670$5,328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,341.85	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	13c	6,500$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$864.03	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	30c	6,286$1,856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,855.52	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	13c	6,198$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$781.23	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	6,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb05a…1530backed Yes	34c	5,900$1,977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,976.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1095…2650backed No	67c	5,900$3,924 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,976.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	30c	5,894$1,784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,784	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	38c	5,773$2,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,208.58	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	10c	5,755$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.29	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	5,500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	22c	5,338$1,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,157.31	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	5,243$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.97	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	6c	4,561$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.23	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	21c	4,434$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$936.28	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	27c	4,126$1,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,118.73	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	31c	4,112$1,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,280.13	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	74c	4,008$2,961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,046.55	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	17c	4,001$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680.61	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	33c	3,872$1,259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,259.29	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb392…0b80backed Yes	4c	3,809$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	20c	3,717$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.62	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	17c	3,494$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	14c	3,440$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.08	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	16c	3,334$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.39	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	26c	3,247$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843.75	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	2c	3,142$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.21	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed No	65c	3,072$2,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,070.92	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	10c	3,000$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.09	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	9c	3,000$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.3	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	2,976$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.67	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	11c	2,896$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.15	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	9c	2,894$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.02	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	2,832$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.57	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	3c	2,803$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.39	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	5c	2,738$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.06	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	2,617$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.71	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc47…be03backed Yes	3c	2,591$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.03	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	14c	2,514$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	7c	2,500$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.3	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	36c	2,500$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.68	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	2,473$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	18c	2,411$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.42	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	2,384$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.87	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	2c	2,370$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	7c	2,316$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	21c	2,299$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	13c	2,271$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	8c	2,264$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	20c	2,210$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.63	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	19c	2,143$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.9	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1005…a843backed Yes	32c	2,085$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.38	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed Yes	10c	2,042$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.47	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	2,032$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.07	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	2,011$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.76	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	28c	2,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.64	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7de…dae0backed Yes	38c	1,933$729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	31c	1,922$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.49	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	1,879$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.67	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	10c	1,873$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.3	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde71…070ebacked Yes	10c	1,725$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.42	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,703$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.33	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,660$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.07	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	1,600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	6c	1,600$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.27	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event