Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3a41ba27bef443cedc914bf530ad5cb17460d1eef10ece7ad96e4cfc9cbb6cb

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $144,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	3,909$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.61	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	3,513$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.05	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x744a…2488backed Yes	0c	2,886$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	3c	2,880$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	2,770$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.88	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes	4c	2,483$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.69	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,074$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.05	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	4c	2,000$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	1,595$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.81	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	2c	1,539$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.59	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	5c	1,500$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	1,470$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.75	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,411$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.04	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	3c	1,260$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.6	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x340f…7a99backed Yes	2c	1,227$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.54	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6948…b971backed Yes	1c	1,200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,199$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.76	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	5c	1,150$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	4c	1,019$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	6c	991.96$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.34	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	988.35$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	983.14$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ac…3585backed Yes	2c	960.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	4c	920.28$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	910.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	884.08$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.14	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	853.93$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.73	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	4c	799.96$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	774.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	2c	700$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	622.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.66	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	5c	589.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	3c	518.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	5c	499.95$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	362.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa71…1bcbbacked Yes	4c	299.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	6c	299.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eea…726bbacked Yes	6c	167$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes	14c	145.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	140.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event