Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaea612a0f00e293e6ec9d40c9322042b2f32b4ecbbe2fc45c7818c410b078c65

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $898,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $456,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $898,487 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	41,108$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	0c	21,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72e6…bc6dbacked Yes	1c	19,716$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	20cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	1c	19,585$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.14	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7061…816ebacked Yes	6c	15,880$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.81	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	12,353$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	11,889$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.28	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	10,484$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.22	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcab…0012backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	2cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,373$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42d…5287backed Yes	0c	8,941$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.54	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	8,209$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.1	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1b…8a71backed Yes	1c	7,464$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	7,267$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.38	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	7,159$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.52	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	7,125$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.59	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae4f…b821backed Yes	1c	7,062$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	3c	6,938$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.9	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	6,681$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	6,121$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.85	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,577$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.27	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21cc…2024backed Yes	1c	5,050$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.85	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	5,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a9b…d9e0backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	8cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	2c	4,743$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.15	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	6c	4,500$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.01	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	4,292$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.85	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	4,291$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.62	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	3c	4,264$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.89	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	4,253$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.93	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	0c	4,172$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	4,000$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.3	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	4c	3,708$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.22	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b6…005ebacked Yes	1c	3,571$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,306$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.92	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	3,302$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,100$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.06	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf023…b250backed Yes	1c	3,082$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,074$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	2,633$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.04	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6948…b971backed Yes	7c	2,590$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	2,571$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.14	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	5c	2,560$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.47	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe12a…d77bbacked Yes	1c	2,535$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	2,430$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.03	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	0c	2,380$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x513f…60c3backed Yes	2c	2,319$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	36cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	2,303$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.72	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,265$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.4	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	2,255$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.41	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7021…ddebbacked Yes	1c	2,217$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba2c…b5d1backed Yes	0c	2,215$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	2,211$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.45	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	6c	2,197$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes	1c	2,188$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	6c	2,080$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.67	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	7c	2,075$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.49	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	6c	2,000$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.11	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	12c	2,000$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.39	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.99	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	8c	1,971$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	6c	1,970$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.87	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,969$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.81	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	7c	1,861$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.34	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	4c	1,856$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	6c	1,808$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.48	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	4c	1,769$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.65	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	6c	1,691$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.55	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	2c	1,654$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.18	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7a…e15abacked Yes	1c	1,643$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	5c	1,566$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	3c	1,460$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.05	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc3…0904backed Yes	1c	1,427$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	11c	1,400$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.64	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa110…78fabacked Yes	3c	1,292$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	106	31.1%33 W · 73 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	4c	1,230$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.94	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	1,227$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.05	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	8c	1,208$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.54	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	1,169$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	5c	1,150$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	6c	1,141$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.16	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b29…f712backed Yes	2c	1,139$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	+114.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes	9c	1,110$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	7c	1,101$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.38	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	5c	1,100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.4	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked Yes	9c	1,098$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	20cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	9c	1,086$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.41	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2f…bcc9backed Yes	9c	1,041$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	5c	1,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.86	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	6c	999.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0ff…a17cbacked Yes	2c	869.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	4c	849.68$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.15	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes	2c	836.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	6c	830.95$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.48	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes	12c	818.14$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	77	9.1%7 W · 70 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee3…f07ebacked Yes	6c	803$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+181.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffbf…cc59backed Yes	3c	800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc13d…4bdabacked Yes	6c	800$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event