Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e538f4e4e574b641af4479b52882e068046a095f5131d979e250e816b2968a2

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $483,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $374,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,421 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	0c	28,519$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	13,358$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.7	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee1…a312backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	10	10%1 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	9,066$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.31	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,849$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.36	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,810$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.89	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	6,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,644$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.77	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	5,417$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	5,078$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.34	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	4,999$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.51	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	4,783$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.93	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	1c	3,458$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes	0c	3,318$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	3,175$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.39	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	12c	3,000$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.42	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a4a…cb91backed Yes	0c	2,750$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,474$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.94	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	2,306$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.48	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	3c	2,068$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	3c	2,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	2c	1,972$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.66	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	4c	1,954$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	1,928$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.83	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,865$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	1,841$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.91	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	6c	1,671$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	9c	1,566$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,480$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.3	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,454$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.42	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	1,392$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.5	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,327$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.31	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	5c	1,270$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.73	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	5c	1,200$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…13dabacked Yes	2c	1,178$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	5c	1,149$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.44	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79d7…4d2abacked Yes	10c	1,120$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+311.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	1,044$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.2	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	3c	1,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	999.91$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.49	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	14c	946.2$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6acb…8742backed Yes	2c	907.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	11c	899.93$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.99	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	3c	860.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	9c	799.99$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	11c	779.97$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.6	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3382…8a35backed Yes	13c	774.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	10c	675.35$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.53	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	3c	600$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	3c	572.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	522.51$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.05	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945c…9721backed Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+61.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	2c	494.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	12c	464.06$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.69	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe98c…49bebacked Yes	5c	456.96$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.45	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+99.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	9c	444.44$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	8c	439.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	4c	420$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	11c	416.39$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.64	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	415.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7896…6653backed Yes	2c	414.73$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	406.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x006c…690bbacked Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32c…de99backed Yes	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	8c	362.49$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	5c	349.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.47	142	18.3%26 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+124.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	3c	346.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	5c	340$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…026dbacked Yes	13c	318.83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	5c	316.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b9…969bbacked Yes	9c	281.79$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-62%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	13c	253.85$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	14c	250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07a…4d19backed Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes	12c	219.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x647b…5750backed Yes	9c	210.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	210$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c98…0749backed Yes	9c	144.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x028d…dc79backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…2364backed Yes	7c	134.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd6…3347backed Yes	13c	134.62$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x65a0…efe9backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf483…4e2cbacked Yes	13c	110$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53aa…7c78backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	12c	102.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa71…1bcbbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x718f…086cbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	13c	77.38$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event