TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3285…745f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Boxing, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT405%2 W · 38 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.98
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$10.37
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.11
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$14.41
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$111.85
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+108.4%+$92.45
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$49.9
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$24.93
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$153.04
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$66.73
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+2,467.8%+$666.06
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grizzlies vs. Sunsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+34.8%+$3.83
Hornets vs. Heatbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.15
Thunder vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Magic vs. 76ersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 4 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+338.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+733.3%+$623.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$70.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.