Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f248793183427a38eea310c14fb01b2a4b52df380d6e7cd650ffac9b400120

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,424,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $880,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,424,454 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 400 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xce40…da67backed Yes	0c	60,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	26,255$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.27	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	9c	23,248$2,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,041.36	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	18,297$1,564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,563.79	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	14,641$1,967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,966.71	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked Yes	5c	13,470$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	5c	12,600$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…aa4dbacked Yes	5c	12,010$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.53	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	30cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	10,585$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.16	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	2c	10,016$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.39	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	10,000$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.7	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	9,976$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	9,424$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.74	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	12c	8,866$1,028 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,027.92	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	8,343$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.52	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	13c	8,132$1,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.54	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	8,100$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.7	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,858$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.06	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	7,769$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.4	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	7,050$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.42	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	1c	7,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	6c	6,809$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	6,038$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.18	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	5,564$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.4	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	11c	5,468$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.49	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	5,337$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.13	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	8c	5,282$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.84	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	7c	5,099$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.07	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e6…56a3backed Yes	4c	5,000$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.72	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	16c	4,881$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$774.49	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	4,748$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.87	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	18c	4,638$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.46	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	4,609$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.16	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	13c	4,595$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	4c	4,545$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.72	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	11c	4,427$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.37	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02d…aef8backed Yes	7c	4,213$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+123.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes	6c	4,209$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.04	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	7c	4,078$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.8	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	9c	3,864$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.48	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	3,487$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.92	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	12c	3,426$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.81	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	3,307$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.87	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	10c	3,172$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	4c	3,113$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	2c	3,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	16c	3,000$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.89	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	12c	3,000$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	11c	2,969$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.08	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	11c	2,962$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.46	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	2,942$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.36	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc460…e689backed Yes	2c	2,758$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.69	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,727$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.33	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	2,694$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.86	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	8c	2,690$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.51	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	15c	2,670$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.08	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	2,567$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.51	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	13c	2,544$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.65	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	3c	2,481$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.73	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	7c	2,408$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	2,381$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.17	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	2,374$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.13	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	7c	2,272$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.29	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc819…0123backed Yes	2c	2,262$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+89.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	13c	2,206$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.6	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	2,031$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.97	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	10c	2,015$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.08	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	7c	2,000$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.4	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	12c	2,000$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.2	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3922…0670backed Yes	6c	1,955$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes	2c	1,933$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.93	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	2c	1,933$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.12	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,855$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.99	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,815$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.48	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	3c	1,806$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c1…0605backed Yes	3c	1,796$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.35	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	10c	1,577$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	1,538$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.84	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	14c	1,497$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.77	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	1c	1,477$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	13c	1,473$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.45	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes	20c	1,461$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.1	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+83.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	1,449$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	14c	1,400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe7…4362backed Yes	19c	1,355$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.52	90	15.6%14 W · 76 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…1e81backed Yes	1c	1,346$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc394…0082backed Yes	9c	1,300$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.37	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	11c	1,297$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.81	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…e7e9backed Yes	16c	1,272$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	5c	1,260$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.69	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	9c	1,245$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.21	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	14c	1,237$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.86	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x818b…0606backed Yes	1c	1,227$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	16c	1,216$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.19	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event