Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2955013ae71ed597471f564db3a2ba3e0a24dea82e6da6d9b54799de774886cf

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $684,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $222,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,374 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	46,660$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.11	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4586…3866backed Yes	0c	40,800$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	40,157$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.94	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	20,439$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	19,675$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.94	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaddf…c6bfbacked Yes	0c	14,314$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.63	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,927$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	13,335$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.31	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	12,924$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.85	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes	1c	12,126$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.81	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	12,000$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	11,831$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.62	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	10,939$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	1c	10,081$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.96	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	8,126$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.03	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	7,767$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.53	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,150$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.35	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	7,147$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.06	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	5,714$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.53	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	4,785$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.89	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	4,178$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	4,072$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…9218backed Yes	4c	4,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	0c	3,770$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…b8ecbacked Yes	1c	3,721$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes	0c	3,701$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	3,538$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.84	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	3,140$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.92	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7abe…cabbbacked Yes	2c	3,008$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	1c	3,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,857$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.61	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	2c	2,700$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	2,655$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	1c	2,570$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.49	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,405$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes	1c	2,373$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.26	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+114.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	2,200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f91…0689backed Yes	1c	2,164$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	1c	2,149$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	1c	2,128$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	2,103$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	1c	1,823$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde71…070ebacked Yes	4c	1,592$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.97	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	1c	1,559$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	1c	1,448$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	4c	1,348$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.29	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	1c	1,250$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	3c	1,159$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	2c	1,137$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.42	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes	1c	1,062$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	3c	761.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaae…8aa1backed Yes	2c	553.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	544.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ba…b0d6backed Yes	2c	496.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	5c	418.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	6c	331.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event