Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe25ae47970ad8babbe3073eaca65d24ee73f685fd49f74e55d2b75a965639695

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,110,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,818,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,110,549 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 950 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2a44…e4e8backed No	0c	43,693$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.69	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	4c	38,606$1,673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36,932.4	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	25c	37,130$9,265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,865.05	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	49c	33,529$16,427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,101.84	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	43c	27,605$11,769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,835.72	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	18,247$2,894 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,352.66	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	19c	17,244$3,344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,899.97	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	76c	16,769$12,761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,761.41	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	29c	16,449$4,775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,673.73	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	30c	15,510$4,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,839.84	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	17c	15,333$2,617 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,716.8	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	21c	14,065$2,924 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,141.04	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	10c	12,256$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,025.95	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	8c	12,039$995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,043.21	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	12c	11,656$1,387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,268.86	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No	0c	11,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6467…7cadbacked No	75c	10,779$8,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,117.89	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	47c	10,116$4,735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,735.38	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	35c	10,103$3,559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,544.13	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…4605backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b84…ccf2backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44ed…fe99backed No	75c	9,445$7,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,117.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	37c	8,972$3,342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,629.24	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb95…489cbacked Yes	71c	8,668$6,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,493.55	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	8,496$876 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,620.04	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	30c	8,492$2,527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,964.55	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	13c	8,343$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,282.69	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x716f…f38bbacked No	62c	8,200$5,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,043	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	16c	8,198$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,897.96	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	25c	7,910$2,006 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,904.33	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	10c	7,466$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,741.16	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	24c	7,165$1,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,471.01	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	32c	7,160$2,301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,859.42	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	60c	7,105$4,246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,246.24	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	14c	6,989$1,007 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,982.23	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed Yes	22c	6,924$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,424.14	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	18c	6,888$1,262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,626.09	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	6,836$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,960.84	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	15c	6,566$1,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,557.36	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	20c	6,293$1,281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,012.36	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	25c	6,239$1,538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,700.71	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	28c	6,012$1,706 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,305.87	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	23c	5,835$1,324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,511.52	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	11c	5,779$630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,148.47	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	22c	5,772$1,251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,520.72	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7402…6a0cbacked No	79c	5,620$4,454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,453.69	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1078…6276backed Yes	47c	5,501$2,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,920.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,950	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e6…56a3backed Yes	33c	5,000$1,638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,362.19	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	23c	4,906$1,131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,774.57	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	15c	4,839$703 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,136.71	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	14c	4,779$662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,117.58	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	18c	4,730$867 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,862.7	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	18c	4,515$793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,721.44	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	10c	4,511$473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,038.23	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	45c	4,444$1,980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,464.44	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes	37c	4,405$1,634 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,770.9	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed No	1c	4,391$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes	14c	4,324$605 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,718.7	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	71c	4,158$2,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,967.73	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55bb…5ae7backed Yes	39c	4,100$1,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,521.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+102.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2012…109dbacked Yes	39c	4,100$1,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,521.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	14c	4,007$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,442.81	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	3,986$482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,504.01	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	9c	3,903$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,536.63	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b0…2f8bbacked No	80c	3,831$3,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,057.73	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	13c	3,756$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,260.97	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	75c	3,750$2,797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,797.43	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	25c	3,727$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,797.28	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	3,632$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,457.45	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	5c	3,580$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,387.29	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	10c	3,577$373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,204.63	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	33c	3,558$1,188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,369.38	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	21c	3,291$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,588.62	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	27c	3,281$894 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,386.23	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	9c	3,273$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,969.23	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49a…e985backed Yes	2c	3,272$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,221.65	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+367.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	19c	3,261$631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,630.25	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2704…2427backed No	73c	3,150$2,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,299.04	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	75c	3,123$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,349.92	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	33c	3,087$1,013 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,073.74	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	16c	3,046$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,552.38	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	14c	3,017$421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,595.49	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes	22c	3,004$658 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,345.41	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	17c	3,000$518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,482.03	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed No	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	15c	2,970$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,533.74	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7b…3080backed No	55c	2,915$1,606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,606.07	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	39c	2,894$1,138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,755.86	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	22c	2,884$640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,244.05	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Yes	24c	2,584$626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,957.92	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	73c	2,581$1,884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,883.99	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	10c	2,573$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,320.96	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	22c	2,504$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,953.57	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	22c	2,500$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,942.5	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed No	76c	2,497$1,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,892.81	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,465$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,387	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	5c	2,339$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,228.53	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	6c	2,284$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,149	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	30c	2,235$671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,563.89	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event