Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9a2900fcce6721c816ed94c6ba98973f3eb6b264fc1255bbc532461feb2025

Rebuilt 37 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,040,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $446,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,040,943 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	0c	48,548$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.1	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	48,166$1,639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,638.53	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacea…5facbacked Yes	1c	23,214$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	18,424$770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.88	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	17,060$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.56	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	15,592$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.34	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes	1c	14,961$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.36	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	14,066$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.55	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	13,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	12,698$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.04	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	12,441$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	0c	11,550$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	4c	11,532$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.09	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	11,038$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	10,809$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.39	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	0c	10,161$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.46	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	9,795$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.59	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	7,160$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.78	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	6,532$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.96	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	6,485$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.56	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes	2c	6,158$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.84	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	6,132$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.74	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	6,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff8…aa3abacked Yes	0c	5,510$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.04	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	8cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	5,402$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	2c	5,395$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.83	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaddf…c6bfbacked Yes	1c	5,229$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.98	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	5,208$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.28	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	0c	5,200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	5,062$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.36	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c12…b6f2backed Yes	0c	4,448$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	4,425$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.66	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	2c	4,340$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.78	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	3c	3,951$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.68	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	3,732$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.53	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	0c	3,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82c7…ab66backed Yes	1c	3,320$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+196.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	3,148$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.58	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e8…3153backed Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	2c	3,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.99	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	2c	3,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	2c	2,953$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.1	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	2c	2,913$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.56	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	3c	2,879$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.61	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,800$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.65	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	4c	2,733$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	11c	2,700$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	2,687$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.06	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,677$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.65	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	6c	2,516$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.16	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,421$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.56	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	2,378$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.93	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4a…cb91backed Yes	1c	2,361$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	2,347$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.59	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b29…f712backed Yes	1c	2,281$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	+114.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	15c	2,275$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.89	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	2c	2,208$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.36	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	4c	2,197$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.68	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	5c	2,175$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	3c	2,160$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.55	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes	7c	2,153$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	5c	2,146$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes	1c	2,100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	5c	2,094$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.84	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,051$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.42	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x774f…8779backed Yes	4c	2,000$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.01	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	7c	1,852$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	1,809$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	1,803$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	6c	1,791$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	6c	1,768$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,767$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	2c	1,757$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	2c	1,750$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	2c	1,667$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.81	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	1,653$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.45	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	14c	1,643$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.09	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…8326backed Yes	1c	1,601$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	4c	1,572$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.08	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	4c	1,529$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.36	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Yes	1c	1,512$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	1c	1,511$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	1c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	3c	1,500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	1c	1,436$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.03	184	12%22 W · 162 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	2c	1,419$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3e…ee0dbacked Yes	1c	1,394$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	12c	1,384$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	1c	1,380$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	3c	1,334$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.32	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes	4c	1,324$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.69	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	1c	1,301$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	93	21.5%20 W · 73 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,294$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf17c…f7fbbacked Yes	1c	1,287$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	4c	1,276$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.85	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event