Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80bc4392bbed4cd5a93a13073b9b501072368e3d6e7cb7c362774fce9d2ec11b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,083,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $450,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,083,682 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	63,081$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,066.68	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	0c	37,985$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.98	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	30,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	0c	21,500$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	20,662$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	20,251$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.85	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	3c	16,602$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.89	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	2c	16,003$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.17	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaddf…c6bfbacked Yes	0c	14,679$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.36	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	14,540$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.37	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	14,347$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	14,210$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.31	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes	1c	13,805$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.29	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	13,532$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.64	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	13,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	12,903$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6490…41abbacked Yes	0c	12,690$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	11,977$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4a…cb91backed Yes	0c	11,882$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	10,047$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	9,585$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.49	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	3c	8,986$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.27	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	7,160$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.32	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	6,510$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.03	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,423$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.39	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4918…2016backed Yes	1c	5,874$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	5,344$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.08	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	4,920$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.21	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…9218backed Yes	7c	4,748$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.33	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	4,449$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.24	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	1c	4,173$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	3,754$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	3,724$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.67	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	3,651$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.65	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,635$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	3,600$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	3c	3,534$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.6	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes	1c	3,500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdba1…0232backed Yes	0c	3,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-61%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,152$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.53	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	7c	3,072$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.79	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes	3c	3,071$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.37	201	29.4%59 W · 142 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	3c	3,058$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff8…aa3abacked Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	8cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	3c	3,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82c7…ab66backed Yes	2c	2,909$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.28	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+196.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcab…0012backed Yes	5c	2,786$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.48	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	2cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	2,701$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.02	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,620$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.83	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…abc3backed Yes	1c	2,555$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	64	6.3%4 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c5d…1dc3backed Yes	4c	2,505$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	3c	2,462$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.03	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	2,392$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.03	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,326$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	2c	2,312$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.49	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2da…8633backed Yes	7c	2,275$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.23	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	2,267$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.01	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	7c	2,201$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.9	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	3c	2,106$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.73	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	5c	2,093$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	2c	2,064$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.28	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x733c…52d8backed Yes	4c	2,063$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	11cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	2c	1,954$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.48	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked Yes	2c	1,839$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7be8…876bbacked Yes	6c	1,796$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	1c	1,784$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec6…f325backed Yes	1c	1,760$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,729$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.17	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	2c	1,690$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.87	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,679$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.71	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	3c	1,607$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.78	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	3c	1,553$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	1c	1,363$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfca7…6113backed Yes	2c	1,342$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.07	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	9c	1,333$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.54	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76e3…f160backed Yes	2c	1,278$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+144.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dad…0830backed Yes	6c	1,220$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	4c	1,158$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	4c	1,122$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	3c	1,114$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x477a…b8ecbacked Yes	3c	1,105$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.61	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f91…0689backed Yes	2c	1,100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,081$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.41	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	9c	1,053$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	2c	1,021$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	1c	999.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeec…93f9backed Yes	2c	965.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.27	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	2c	892.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	860.15$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa133…1c7dbacked Yes	2c	835.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+124.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes	2c	828.12$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	77	9.1%7 W · 70 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	4c	812.65$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcda…d764backed Yes	6c	811.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes	5c	791.12$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	178	17.4%31 W · 147 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event