Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7ccf00d77e843b86ea9d9027e6c1da91c52f8fea154658d740dfc0a15bc6a74

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,182,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $709,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,182,704 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	34,152$1,453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,453.36	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked Yes	1c	32,045$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	28,973$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.85	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	2c	24,436$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.7	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	14,634$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.07	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	10c	14,000$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,469.91	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcab…0012backed Yes	0c	12,290$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	2cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	12,282$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.2	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	11,855$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.78	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	0c	10,094$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2933…7d0bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07c8…8059backed Yes	2c	9,961$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	4c	9,705$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.52	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	9,000$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.49	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	8,266$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.68	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,289$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.65	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed Yes	3c	6,884$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	5c	6,530$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.01	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	5,395$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.48	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	0c	5,321$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.29	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	4,922$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	4,749$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.27	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	3c	4,648$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.9	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	4,490$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.45	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	4,272$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.14	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	4,076$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.62	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	3,659$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.47	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	3,600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	3,504$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.86	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	11c	3,287$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,193$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.56	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	3,015$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	2c	3,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,995$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	2,939$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.17	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	13c	2,682$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.92	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	4c	2,461$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.53	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	2,375$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.33	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc49a…e985backed Yes	5c	2,298$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+367.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad6…7126backed Yes	2c	2,237$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	3c	2,234$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.32	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	10c	2,149$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.46	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,048$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.84	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	2,042$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.3	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Yes	0c	2,023$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	10c	2,000$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.84	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,000$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	2,000$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.69	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	2c	1,971$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec6…f325backed Yes	3c	1,850$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.82	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	2c	1,800$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.91	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a7…1facbacked Yes	13c	1,798$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,766$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94de…74bcbacked Yes	1c	1,727$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d2…9fcfbacked Yes	3c	1,692$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	1,559$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.23	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1423…6581backed Yes	2c	1,550$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	6c	1,529$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.13	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	2c	1,527$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	10c	1,506$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	10c	1,505$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	12c	1,500$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.72	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	9c	1,500$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.66	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	14c	1,500$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.82	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	7c	1,486$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc93b…3090backed Yes	2c	1,462$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	8c	1,440$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.76	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,400$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	5c	1,319$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59ee…d4e3backed Yes	2c	1,309$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dae…18b4backed Yes	8c	1,271$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefee…4c3dbacked Yes	1c	1,231$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes	3c	1,230$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	1,211$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.44	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	3c	1,181$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x744a…2488backed Yes	2c	1,151$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	1,129$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	5c	1,093$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.5	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	11c	1,063$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	12c	1,062$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.05	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb000…713fbacked Yes	3c	1,060$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-90.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	1,056$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.17	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	1,050$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	5c	1,042$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.76	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef5f…fcbcbacked Yes	1c	1,026$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.34	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-74%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f17…d5acbacked Yes	10c	1,017$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	11c	1,016$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.8	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	7c	1,010$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.53	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	10c	1,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	10c	1,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.54	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	10c	999.99$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	10c	999.99$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	15c	999.99$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.18	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	2c	995.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.64	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7fe7…4362backed Yes	3c	954$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.76	90	15.6%14 W · 76 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf451…bcf1backed Yes	1c	938.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	6c	934.95$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.95	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	928.07$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.76	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65d3…471cbacked Yes	2c	864.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7dc…e407backed Yes	1c	861.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event