Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4f635c4fdb0fbfe986ddc93712388065abad3bf0f19f07e3171196f75c3c8d

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,428,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $652,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,428,158 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	1c	64,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	55,326$3,129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,129.12	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	1c	40,757$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.37	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	4c	39,361$1,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,656	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	26,534$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.44	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	0c	25,836$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.01	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	20,737$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.38	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	19,573$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.7	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	19,092$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.28	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	2c	17,353$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.92	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	17,241$1,770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,769.62	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	6c	16,822$1,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,052.56	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	3c	16,475$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.86	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	13,119$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.86	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes	0c	12,922$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	12,330$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	11,016$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.46	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes	1c	10,551$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.82	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb75c…7d0bbacked Yes	4c	9,797$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	9c	9,729$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.96	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	9,596$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.28	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	9,028$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.04	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	1c	9,000$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.44	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd079…9948backed Yes	0c	8,400$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	1c	8,090$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.94	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	8c	7,666$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.32	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	1c	7,580$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.18	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	7,160$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.96	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	8c	7,052$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.35	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	6,643$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.96	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	19c	6,468$1,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,213.3	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	0c	6,076$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.34	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,029$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.93	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes	3c	5,847$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.09	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes	5c	5,831$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.93	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	5,700$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.8	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	5c	5,692$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.5	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	5,386$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.95	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	16c	5,295$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.53	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	4c	5,171$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.56	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6948…b971backed Yes	2c	5,099$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.65	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	5,025$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	3c	5,014$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e8…3153backed Yes	2c	5,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	6c	4,993$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.32	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	3c	4,944$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.24	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	1c	4,711$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.17	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	3c	4,557$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	4c	4,400$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.78	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	3c	4,393$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.87	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	4,373$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.15	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	4,360$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.76	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	6c	4,358$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.3	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	4,228$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.9	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c1…7122backed Yes	2c	4,152$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes	2c	3,952$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	3,911$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.5	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	3,800$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	3c	3,577$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.02	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	4c	3,385$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.03	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	6c	3,280$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	1c	3,242$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	5c	3,150$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.55	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	1c	3,093$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.72	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,047$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	3c	3,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.39	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	3c	2,979$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.73	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaddf…c6bfbacked Yes	3c	2,843$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.45	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	17c	2,700$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.7	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	2,540$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.08	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c3e…ee0dbacked Yes	1c	2,525$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	3c	2,510$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.27	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	14c	2,464$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.21	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	2,370$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.28	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	2,303$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.52	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Yes	6c	2,298$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	4cpaid	+230.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	4c	2,290$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	6c	2,286$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.9	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	2,223$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.62	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…81cfbacked Yes	2c	2,200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes	2c	2,159$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes	2c	2,115$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.1	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,076$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.72	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	2,007$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.14	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	2,001$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.85	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	2,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.82	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	2,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked Yes	1c	1,998$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	2c	1,933$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,914$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.66	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c1…0605backed Yes	1c	1,900$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	3c	1,800$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.72	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	4c	1,796$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.37	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	3c	1,782$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.24	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	4c	1,779$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.82	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	14c	1,690$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.8	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event