Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x812f2ffcc59fedae013530ce3a8c0b777491c4e76e1174ddd2498703d68dd1ae

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $668,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $423,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $668,223 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	34,029$891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$891.27	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	6c	25,000$1,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,497.82	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	0c	17,168$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	0c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.9	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	8,343$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.03	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	8,254$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.03	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a1…13a3backed Yes	1c	8,221$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	2c	7,146$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.09	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,435$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.53	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed7…e48bbacked Yes	1c	6,251$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,602$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	5c	5,335$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.95	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	4c	4,717$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.69	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	4,317$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.41	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,290$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.84	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	8c	3,000$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	5c	2,777$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.86	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	2,553$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.87	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	10c	2,500$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.59	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	2,400$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.11	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4064…82c6backed Yes	2c	2,328$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	4c	2,253$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	5c	2,222$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.8	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	2,089$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.8	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	7c	2,084$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	2,011$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.38	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	9c	2,000$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.09	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	2,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcea0…bf6dbacked Yes	10c	1,860$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49a…e985backed Yes	5c	1,855$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+367.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	1,819$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.69	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	8c	1,777$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,769$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.7	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,730$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.16	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,726$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.25	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	9c	1,684$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.8	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	1,589$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	6c	1,500$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.07	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	6c	1,500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.62	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	6c	1,319$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.56	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	9c	1,300$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.25	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	7c	1,248$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	1,219$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.87	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…39adbacked Yes	9c	1,200$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.07	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+124.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e0…6510backed Yes	3c	1,145$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	9c	1,138$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	10c	1,117$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.08	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	3c	1,106$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	6c	1,031$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes	2c	1,020$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.35	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+114.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	8c	1,004$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.82	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed Yes	4c	1,003$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	10c	1,000$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd302…0311backed Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	9c	1,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.82	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc361…be8ebacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	4c	999.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	999.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8b…5672backed Yes	6c	986.07$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f17…d5acbacked Yes	5c	965.92$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	9c	939.51$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.68	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	934.89$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes	1c	922.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	6c	862.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87e2…3517backed Yes	1c	846.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	10c	799.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	2c	747.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes	5c	719.62$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	10c	709.63$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	4c	700.82$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	9c	700$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.5	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb7e…5f5cbacked Yes	7c	685.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…93f9backed Yes	2c	672$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	3c	650$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	638.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	9c	609.51$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.55	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	3c	604.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.94	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	8c	601.14$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.17	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	8c	600.5$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.65	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	10c	600$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	5c	595.08$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	9c	591.12$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.21	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	10c	564.45$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.17	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	4c	563.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	10c	521.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.18	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	518.89$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.74	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aed…9f49backed Yes	2c	517.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes	4c	514.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77aa…a0b7backed Yes	3c	508.97$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc039…69bcbacked Yes	2c	503.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	8c	500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	9c	499.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes	4c	484.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	3c	467.48$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bba…55e0backed Yes	11c	462.26$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	449.63$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event