Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad017e39b869fabbe5a0a1df5a4aecd7fc18982378aa49efa008235ce375b73

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $498,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $297,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,356 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa6a1…13a3backed Yes	0c	33,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc52…6bcfbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ff…a17cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	18c	8,322$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	8,298$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.08	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	6,430$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.03	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	17c	5,899$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.76	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	1c	5,601$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.8	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13e…b719backed Yes	0c	5,100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes	1c	5,021$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	4,934$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.67	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,885$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	0c	3,360$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,081$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.52	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	3,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,763$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	2,635$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.89	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,305$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…e860backed Yes	4c	2,284$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	2,276$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.56	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	15c	2,221$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.13	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	13c	2,219$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.67	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	2,103$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	16c	2,000$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	1,835$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.12	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	1c	1,777$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	14c	1,695$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.13	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	5c	1,694$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.47	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	1c	1,692$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	80c	1,652$1,315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.6	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	14c	1,555$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.79	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	12c	1,500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	79c	1,400$1,103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,385$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.13	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	16c	1,263$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	1,250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.72	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,166$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.19	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	1,136$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.22	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,121$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	1,074$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	1,014$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.71	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	3c	1,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	2c	1,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.76	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	1c	968.38$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	13c	852.73$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	2c	821.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.44	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	725.89$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.4	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe91f…e493backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	15c	700$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	4c	636.94$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes	15c	625.67$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.13	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	14c	600.91$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad5…1d61backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	582.89$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c6…6d71backed Yes	5c	580.39$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	97	23.7%23 W · 74 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	18c	560$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	10c	503.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.22	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b50…1742backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf12…e4bcbacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6051…1ff6backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x643a…5be6backed Yes	16c	499.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	14c	486$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.04	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	4c	452.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes	6c	438.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc8…02b2backed Yes	6c	414.11$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x660a…2ef5backed Yes	18c	403.96$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.96	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	6c	393.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	12c	391.19$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	15c	317.23$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.22	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	4c	313.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2923…77d5backed Yes	12c	312.63$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f9b…0f36backed Yes	8c	312.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4720…5907backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	14c	299.97$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	270.11$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa9…7633backed Yes	15c	266.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3382…8a35backed Yes	13c	236.37$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c7…497cbacked Yes	15c	233.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	21cpaid	-86.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f6e…db0bbacked Yes	13c	230.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.03	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4bc…91c2backed Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	8c	230$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	222.05$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes	14c	220$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7217…a87cbacked Yes	18c	216.75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	12c	210.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.18	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c98…6f55backed Yes	16c	199.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	228	24.1%55 W · 173 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1be…40aebacked Yes	17c	199.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event