TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$199,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,961 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb916…ef69backed Yes0c41,590$181 inLost-$181.5200%0 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c7,804$11 inLost-$10.791,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes2c7,303$146 inLost-$145.627966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$104869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c3,974$13 inLost-$13.442,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes4c3,500$140 inLost-$14015812%19 W · 139 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes2c3,000$60 inLost-$606141%25 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+132.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes3c1,700$52 inLost-$52.4677.5%5 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c1,667$24 inLost-$24.351824.9%9 W · 173 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,514$17 inLost-$16.561,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes3c999.95$28 inLost-$2817717.5%31 W · 146 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes2c999.93$23 inLost-$231109.1%10 W · 100 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-32.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c843.9$12 inLost-$12.266915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes3c599.99$19 inLost-$18.9267.7%2 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-90%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes4c500$20 inLost-$20995.1%5 W · 94 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c489.03$12 inLost-$11.947304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes5c486$24 inLost-$24.33010%3 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-71.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes4c399.98$14 inLost-$1418631.7%59 W · 127 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes4c250$10 inLost-$10955.3%5 W · 90 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.