Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd45883cf53da8e88ae995e10bf61c287ccb7b44eefb57ee4825ad954344d9e3f

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,526,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $991,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,526,174 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 897 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	19c	53,007$9,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,824.59	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	27c	33,053$8,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,993.92	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	42c	30,855$13,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,057.43	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	9c	26,893$2,409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,408.57	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	46c	23,001$10,601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,600.75	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	25c	13,984$3,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,441.4	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	35c	12,732$4,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,313.67	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	29c	12,606$3,677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,677.34	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	19c	12,225$2,267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,266.99	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	41c	10,800$4,415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,415.18	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	16c	10,307$1,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,660.34	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	9,611$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	24c	9,330$2,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,211.35	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	19c	9,139$1,704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,703.87	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	8c	8,903$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.95	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	50c	8,746$4,347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,347.33	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	64c	7,908$5,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,036.97	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	57c	7,842$4,438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,438.01	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	7,724$1,251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250.56	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	27c	7,464$1,985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,984.84	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	2c	7,375$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.16	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	20c	7,160$1,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,396.71	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	25c	6,816$1,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,718.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b0…2f8bbacked Yes	58c	6,719$3,918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,918.45	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	25c	6,612$1,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,634.37	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	24c	6,434$1,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,550	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	25c	6,401$1,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,624.96	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e8…3153backed No	72c	6,346$4,578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,767.73	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	65c	6,139$3,979 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,160.23	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	21c	6,036$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,259.66	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e6…56a3backed Yes	28c	6,036$1,715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,714.93	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	19c	5,918$1,099 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.02	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	22c	5,657$1,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,218.71	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	18c	5,651$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,036.54	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	13c	5,259$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	23c	5,155$1,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.79	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	7c	5,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	15c	4,885$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$755.94	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed Yes	64c	4,675$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	29c	4,603$1,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,331.74	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	47c	4,594$2,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,166.39	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	64c	4,587$2,945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,641.96	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	9c	4,584$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.93	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	18c	4,233$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.77	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60d…4e95backed Yes	72c	4,053$2,922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,921.84	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	19c	3,993$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.08	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	9c	3,966$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.34	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed Yes	28c	3,965$1,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.53	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	21c	3,811$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.31	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	46c	3,742$1,717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,717.18	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	38c	3,577$1,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,371.5	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	58c	3,576$2,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,068.4	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	15c	3,439$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.77	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…b9b1backed No	75c	3,400$2,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$850	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd37…d668backed Yes	25c	3,400$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	35c	3,365$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,175.2	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	25c	3,315$835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$834.58	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	30c	3,184$944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$944.44	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	19c	3,130$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.33	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7061…816ebacked Yes	32c	3,120$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	10c	3,097$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.74	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	11c	2,990$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.46	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	2,800$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	18c	2,791$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.84	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	22c	2,772$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.16	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	45c	2,761$1,234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,233.75	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,745$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.24	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes	2c	2,697$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	29c	2,620$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.86	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	29c	2,547$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$727.23	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	25c	2,522$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.14	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	20c	2,518$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.17	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,501$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	60c	2,492$1,493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,493.44	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	40c	2,472$986 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$986.09	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	31c	2,459$770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$770	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	6c	2,439$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.35	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	78c	2,400$1,883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.59	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	2,397$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.59	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	11c	2,390$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.81	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	5c	2,373$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	6c	2,340$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.95	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	34c	2,298$782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.48	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	2,260$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.75	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3c…0896backed Yes	1c	2,232$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.17	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ed…fe99backed No	74c	2,118$1,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.68	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	38c	2,102$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$796.08	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	18c	2,100$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc7…eb28backed Yes	44c	2,100$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.85	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…fbeebacked Yes	14c	2,050$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.95	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	80c	2,006$1,601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600.56	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff1e…f645backed Yes	52c	2,000$1,048 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,048	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	9c	2,000$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event