Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23324470fd522162a5bec39ed124b6dc1747ba068c3e42d40371ef5edf1fe610

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $706,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $255,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $706,723 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	61,744$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.74	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	59,999$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	25,020$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	22,505$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.35	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	18,964$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	18,818$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	0c	17,107$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.16	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,726$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.73	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	0c	13,991$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c5…10b3backed Yes	0c	13,205$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes	0c	13,130$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.55	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6530…1c51backed Yes	0c	12,066$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	0c	12,048$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	12,002$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	8,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	7,458$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	6,628$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x818b…0606backed Yes	0c	6,407$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1afb…e524backed Yes	0c	6,010$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+540.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x774f…8779backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda88…83dbbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	0c	4,678$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	0c	4,550$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	1c	4,484$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	0c	4,326$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	184	12%22 W · 162 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a2…e758backed Yes	0c	4,307$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	1c	3,781$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3080…3f53backed Yes	0c	3,667$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	0c	3,565$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	1c	2,994$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	0c	2,679$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…b8ecbacked Yes	0c	2,436$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	1c	1,835$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ed3…0527backed Yes	1c	1,156$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event